Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WWUS54 KFWD 131731
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1231 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXC093-131800-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070313T1800Z/
COMANCHE TX-
1231 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN COMANCHE COUNTY...

AT 1231 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF DE LEON...OR NEAR COMANCHE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DE LEON BY 1250 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3194 9881 3187 9871 3198 9835 3225 9856
      3209 9890

$$

000 
WWUS54 KFWD 131743
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXC093-131800-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070313T1800Z/
COMANCHE TX-
1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN COMANCHE COUNTY...

AT 1243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DE LEON...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF COMANCHE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DE LEON BY 1250 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3203 9873 3193 9862 3202 9838 3227 9856
      3218 9864

$$

000 
WWUS54 KFWD 131801
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
100 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXC093-131810-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070313T1800Z/
COMANCHE TX-
100 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN COMANCHE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 100 PM CDT...

AT 100 PM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA AND THE WARNING EXPIRED. A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ERATH COUNTY. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3203 9873 3193 9862 3202 9838 3227 9856
      3218 9864

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

.UPDATE...GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER.
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN SOME MINOR POP
CONFIGURATION CHANGES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

91

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007/

SHORT TERM...(THRU WED NIGHT) ANOTHER BUSY FCST WITH SEVERAL
THINGS TO DISCUSS FOR NEXT 48 HRS OVER N TX. UPPER
LOW...WELL...JUST ISNT MOVING MUCH AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
W TX/E NM THROUGH THIS EVE...THEN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER N TX
TONIGHT...BEFORE SHUNTING LIFTING EWD OVER E TX/W LA BY WED
EVENING...AS POLAR STREAM OVER NRN CONUS...DIGS AND HELPS EASE
SYSTEM ALONG. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/BOUNDARY REMAINS SETTLE OVER WRN PTNS OF N TX...GENERALLY
ALONG A GOLDTHWATIE...STEPHENVILLE...BOWIE LINE...WITH RICHER 60
DEG F+ DEW PTS TO THE EAST WHERE AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE WERE
OCCURRING. WERE HANDLING THIS FIRST ISSUE WITH SHORT TERM FCSTS
AND HWO...BUT IF IT GETS MORE WIDESPREAD E OF THE BOUNDARY...THEN
WE MAY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEFORE DAYBREAK FOR THE MORNING
RUSH. STAY TUNED.

NOW FOR THE RAIN AND STORMS EXPECTED IN DIFFLUENT REGION OF OUR
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SITTING TO OUR WEST. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION
ALREADY UNDERWAY. A THIN BAND NEAR OUR SFC TROUGH OVER WRN N TX
WHERE DISTURBANCE IS RIDING NWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA NEAR
ABILENE/SAN ANGELO...AND CONVECTION ENTERING AREAS DOWN NEAR TEMPLE
/CAMERON NEAR BEST THETA-E AXIS/ADVECTION AND IN VICINITY OF UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST N OF LEFT EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KT SUBTROPICAL
UPPER JET AXIS ANCHORED OVER DEEP S TX/WRN GULF OF MEXICO. SE
COUNTIES FROM TEMPLE/WACO...ENE TO CORSICANA...ATHENS...PALESTINE
SAW 2-5 INCH AMOUNTS 24 HRS AGO WITH FLASH FLOODING AND SUBSEQUENT
RIVER FLOODING. WITH RICH NEAR TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED OVER
E/SE COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH (FTWFFAFWD) TODAY/TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS AS ANOTHER
DELUGE OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WITH 2-4 INCHES...LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE WATCH WILL NOT INCLUDE THE D/FW
METRO...BUT WILL GO AS FAR WEST AS A KILLEEN...WACO...HILLSBORO...
TERRELL...EMORY LINE.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE HIGH POPS IN WRN COUNTIES THIS A.M...AS THIS
AREA MIXES OUT AND S/W DISTURBANCE ROTATES N/NWD AWAY...SO MAYBE
SOME LOCALIZED 1 INCH+ AMOUNTS OUT THAT WAY THIS A.M. BY AFTERNOON...
A SEVERE WX POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER  ERN 2/3 OF TEXAS AS WELL...
AS MIXING W/DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS AND WEAKENS ANY MINIMAL CAPPING
INVERSION THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...BOTH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE AND COINCIDES WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALONG/E
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. ADD IN THE SOME INCREASING SWLY MID
LVL WINDS ALOFT WITH SLOW APPROACH OF OUR UPPER LOW AND WE COULD
BE DEALING WITH BOTH FLOODING AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS/DOWNBURSTS ON NW FRINGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER
SE TX THIS AFTN/EVE (SEE SPCS SWODY1 FOR DETAILS).

SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOULD LINGER OVER FAR SE COUNTIES BY WED MORNING
.BUT THEN A WEST-EAST ENDING TREND SHOULD OCCUR AS UPPER LOW
LIFTS OUT...ENDING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. TEMPS WERE TRICKY BUT STAYED
WARMER WHERE BETTER MIXING WAS EXPECTED OVER NW 1/2 OF N TX THIS
AFTN. STAY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPS.

LONG TERM...(THURS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK)
AS NW FLOW SETS UP BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL PUNCH
IN THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A COOLER N/NW WINDS AND CLOUDS.
MODELS TRY TO PAINT SOME VERY LOW QPF...BUT STILL FEEL MSTR TOO
MARGINAL FOR RAIN MENTION. SOME SLY FETCH OF MSTR BACK OFF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN ON SAT AND WITH NW FLOW S/W EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...HAVE
INSERTED SOME LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...WARM UP IN STORE SUN/MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  58  78  58  82 /  50  50  20   0  10
WACO, TX              73  59  77  58  83 /  70  70  40   0  10
PARIS, TX             72  58  72  58  81 /  50  60  40  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  57  78  56  80 /  40  40  20   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          73  58  76  57  80 /  50  50  30   0  10
DALLAS, TX            74  59  77  59  82 /  50  50  30   0  10
TERRELL, TX           73  60  75  58  83 /  60  60  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  60  75  59  83 /  70  80  50  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  61  77  59  84 /  70  80  40   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ121-122-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1102 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. A FEW
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TERREL TO HILLSBORO TO KILLEEN. MUCH OF
THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LAMPASAS TO DALLAS TO PARIS LINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
ASSIST WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

DUNN