Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.AVIATION...
1117 PM.
WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...STILL CANNOT TIME ANY POPS AS
MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE WEST AND NORTH OF AIRPORTS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MVFR MORNING AND VFR REST OF THE TIME.  84

&&

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 255 HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR OUR COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAY REDEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SCHULTZ
&&

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST FOR POPS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY TOR
WATCH ALONG OUR NORTHERN 2 TIER OF COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA...ANY REDEVELOPMENT
MAY GO SEVERE AND ROTATE. A FEW UPDRAFTS HAVE TRIED /FROM BOWIE TO
THE METROPLEX/ BUT HAVE FAILED. SEVERAL COMPLEXES REGENERATING TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTH...AND TRENDS WILL BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR
WEST IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION NOT
LOOKING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. UPDATES ALREADY AVAILABLE.

SCHULTZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007/

UPDATE...
MCV MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES HAS BLOSSOMED WITH CONVECTION
OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE TO NO CAP WITH
AMPLE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS...BUT 0-1KM SHEAR FROM SOUNDING IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LOCALLY BACK WINDS AND INCREASE
LOW LEVEL HELICITIES. FURTHERMORE...STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
DISPLAYING WEAK ROTATION. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
POSE A HAZARDOUS FLOODING CONCERN AS SOME OF THESE SAME AREAS
RECEIVED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

EVENING POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

SCHULTZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007/

AVIATION...
ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO THUNDERSTORMS STAYING NORTHWEST OF
METROPLEX TAF SITES AS WELL AS WACO THRU THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHEN MVFR STRATUS WILL RETURN.
CANNOT RULE TSTMS OUT COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW. WEAK
SURFACE LOW SITS JUST WEST OF FTW AND THAT CAN MAKE THE WINDS
PROBLEMATIC...THEY COULD EVEN SWITCH TO NORTHEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME IF THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. WILL GO FOR PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FOR NOW BUT COULD HAVE TO AMEND FOR A PROLONGED SWITCH.  84

UPDATE...
540 PM
WITH THE LACK OF ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF IMMINENT THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION /VIA RADAR...SATELLITE...AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA/ WILL
LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING. STILL BELIEVE BEST CHANCES AT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE OVER OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES...AND
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS /40S/ IN THAT REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND UPDATE
OVERNIGHT POPS IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS. LARGEST
CHANGES WERE TO SKY GRIDS IN ILLUSTRATING CLEARING SKIES OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES.

UPDATES AVAILABLE.

SCHULTZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007/

DISCUSSION...
LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL BE THE FOCI FOR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ONE BOUNDARY IS A FRONT LYING NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND THE OTHERS ARE RESIDUE OUTFLOWS
BOUNDARIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN THE VERY HIGH CAPE...LI/S AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE CAP OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKEN OR DISAPPEARED OVER THE WESTERN 2/3S.
THINK IT WILL HOLD ONTO THE EASTERN 1/3 ANOTHER DAY.

SPEED MAX MOVING DOWN WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGER CONVECTION AND HEAVIEST RAINS GENERALLY
WEST OF OUR CWA FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
INTO WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. IT PROCESS WILL WEAKEN THE OMEGA BLOCK TO OUR EAST AND MOVE
IT EASTWARD LATE WEEK.

AS FOR FLASH FLOODING...RICH THETA-E AND PW/S RUNNING NEAR 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH EACH STORM CAPABLE OF 2 INCHES OR MORE. A SWATCH OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE BIG BEND ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLIP OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...NORTHWEST OF AN
EASTLAND TO NOCONA LINE...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN 1/3. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL LATER.

LITTLE ARGUMENT WITH MEX/MOS FORECAST TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL BE
REASON OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE AREAS. SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER DURING
THE NIGHT HOURS AFTER TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS... THUS ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  82  64  80  64 /  50  40  40  30  40
WACO, TX              71  84  65  81  63 /  40  30  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             69  81  65  80  64 /  60  20  20  20  30
DENTON, TX            69  81  63  79  62 /  60  40  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          68  82  63  81  63 /  60  30  40  30  30
DALLAS, TX            72  83  66  82  65 /  50  30  40  30  30
TERRELL, TX           70  83  65  81  66 /  30  20  30  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         70  84  66  82  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            69  85  65  82  64 /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WFO FWD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081030-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1136 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST OF
A LAMPASAS...TO WEATHERFORD...TO BONHAM LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WEAKENS.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT...MORE LIKELY IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH TEXAS.

84

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
848 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     KNOLLWOOD               33.69N  96.62W
05/07/2007  E60 MPH          GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS NEAR KNOLLWOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
929 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTHMAYD               33.62N  96.72W
05/07/2007                   GRAYSON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF DAMAGE TO AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL NEAR SOUTHMAYD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1007 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHERMAN                 33.62N  96.61W
05/07/2007                   GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE 8-12 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN WESTERN
	    SHERMAN TIME ESTIMATED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1256 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

TXZ119-080630-
DALLAS TX-
1256 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY

AT 1256 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANSFIELD...STATIONARY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ADDISON...CARROLLTON...
COCKRELL HILL...FARMERS BRANCH...GRAND PRAIRIE...HIGHLAND PARK...
IRVING...RICHARDSON AND UNIVERSITY PARK.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3262 9711 3258 9703 3299 9662 3299 9695

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
129 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

TXZ119-080700-
DALLAS TX-
129 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  DALLAS COUNTY

AT 129 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
SEAGOVILLE TO DALLAS TO 4 MILES WEST OF COCKRELL HILL TO 2 MILES
NORTH OF CEDAR HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ADDISON...BALCH SPRINGS...
CARROLLTON...COCKRELL HILL...COPPELL...DALLAS...FARMERS BRANCH...
GARLAND...GRAND PRAIRIE...HIGHLAND PARK...IRVING...MESQUITE...
RICHARDSON...ROWLETT...SACHSE...SEAGOVILLE...SUNNYVALE...UNIVERSITY
PARK AND CEDAR HILL STATE PARK.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3264 9653 3266 9676 3270 9693 3260 9694
      3261 9708 3298 9703 3299 9653

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
220 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

TXZ118-080745-
TARRANT TX-
220 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 220 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RIVER OAKS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLUE MOUND...EAGLE
MOUNTAIN...FORT WORTH...HALTOM CITY...HASLET...LAKE WORTH...PECAN
ACRES...RIVER OAKS...SAGINAW...SANSOM PARK...WESTWORTH AND WHITE
SETTLEMENT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3270 9747 3273 9726 3305 9727 3303 9753