Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.AVIATION...
SOME HIGH END MVFR CIGS ARE HERE AND THERE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INHIBITING THE USE OF THE 11-3.9.  EVEN IF SITES ARE VFR FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THE ONSET OF HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS
TO DEVELOP AT MVFR HEIGHTS.  PREVAILING VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.  CONVECTION IS DIFFICULT TO TIME AND
PINPOINT WITH MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE.  AFW/FTW WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES BEING FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY/LIFT.  FOR
AFW/FTW WILL EXTRAPOLATE CONVECTION NEAR MWL OUT AND ADD A TEMPO TSRA
14-16Z.  OTHERWISE...FEEL THAT WITH AIRMASS DESTABILIZING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARIES ALL OVER...WILL SHOW VCTS AT ALL METRO
SITES.  LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH/AMEND AS CONVECTION TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT.  TR.92

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE CONCHO
VALLEY APPROACHES THE WESTERN ZONES. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
RESIDE IN THE WEST WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE GREATEST. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE TODAY DUE TO SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN..BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL.

BY THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST IS FORECAST TO
OPEN UP AND MEANDER SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. STORM CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT SHOULD
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ONCE THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN ON THE
WEEKEND WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  67  82  64  80 /  40  40  30  30  30
WACO, TX              87  70  84  65  81 /  40  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             83  68  81  65  80 /  40  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            86  68  81  61  79 /  50  50  30  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          83  67  82  63  81 /  40  30  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            86  69  83  66  83 /  40  30  30  30  30
TERRELL, TX           86  70  84  65  81 /  40  30  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         87  69  84  66  82 /  40  20  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            88  68  85  65  83 /  50  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

92/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-072100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
515 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE...TO DALLAS...TO PARIS LINE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THIS AREA...BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WEAKENS.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
844 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ116-071445-
PALO PINTO TX-
844 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 844 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF RANGER...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GORDON AND GRAFORD.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3253 9858 3251 9827 3293 9816 3299 9840
      3285 9855

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