Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
345 PM CDT

UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
BLOSSOMED ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR CHILDRESS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED INITIATE
SOME SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR IN NORTHWEST
ZONES...AND EXPECT FURTHER ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN ZONES AS LOW
CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NE.

CYCLIC MCS SOUTH OF I-20 STOLE THE SHOW TODAY. SOME FLOODING
ISSUES MAY STILL OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY IN SE ZONES THROUGH THE END
OF THE FFA...BEYOND WHICH THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EXITING THE
CWA. THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD FLOOD READILY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FULLY EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES TO BE
ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...THE WATCH WILL NOT BE EXTENDED WHEN IT
EXPIRES AT 4 PM.

NEXT UPPER LOW HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR SAN DIEGO...AND WILL
CONTINUE RACING EAST. PROJECTED IMPACTS LOOK TO BE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS
IN FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE MAIN RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THE
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE REVISITED.

STILL APPEARS THAT RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEEP POLAR TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES MAY RESULT IN A CUT-
OFF. SPECIFICALLY TIMING THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT WOULD BE A LOW
PROBABILITY AFFAIR...AND WILL MAINTAIN PROLONGED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE...WITH LOW EJECTING NE WELL TO THE NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS.
PROGS NOW FAVOR HEIGHTS INDICATIVE OF SIGNIFICANT CAPPING. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  80  65  77  67 /  60  40  60  50  30
WACO, TX              65  83  68  80  69 /  60  40  60  50  20
PARIS, TX             63  76  64  76  63 /  70  60  60  50  40
DENTON, TX            64  80  65  78  68 /  60  40  60  50  30
MCKINNEY, TX          63  78  63  78  65 /  60  40  60  50  30
DALLAS, TX            64  83  66  80  66 /  60  40  60  50  30
TERRELL, TX           64  80  66  79  65 /  70  40  60  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         66  80  66  79  67 /  60  40  60  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            66  82  67  79  66 /  50  30  60  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ092>095-102>107-117>123-131>135-143>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

05/25/82
06/21/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
309 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING...ACROSS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO BETWEEN 1 AND
2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL CANT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...NAMELY FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ162-175-012100-
LEON TX-ROBERTSON TX-
301 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  LEON COUNTY
  ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 301 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF TEAGUE TO 10 MILES NORTH OF HEARNE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BUFFALO...CALVERT...
CENTERVILLE...FRANKLIN AND HEARNE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3151 9614 3099 9674 3082 9663 3077 9656
      3101 9619 3115 9581 3134 9566

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

TXZ174-012115-
MILAM TX-
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN MILAM COUNTY

AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES EAST OF HEARNE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CAMERON AND RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN MILAM COUNTY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3104 9682 3084 9701 3072 9664 3081 9662

SCHULTZ