River Flood Warning 241, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1037 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

.UPDATE...
1030 AM
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING IS LOCATED
NEAR A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO MIDLOTHIAN...TO COOPER. SECONDARY
FRONT LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE RED RIVER
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE RIGHT NOW IS ONGOING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR ALONG WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED ON
SEVERAL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE STREET
AND RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING ALONG THE RED RIVER
WITH THE NEXT FRONT. MORE HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING WITH PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES.
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY....ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT.

HAVE UPDATED CURRENT FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND TO RAISE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES
AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RUNNING FAIRLY COOL /TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S/ AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER
WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...TWEAKED REMAINING GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH 4 PM. WILL UPDATE PRODUCT BEFORE 1 PM AND MAY HAVE
TO EXPAND THE WATCH SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH DEPENDING ON RADAR
TRENDS AT THAT TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007/

AVIATION...
618 AM
NOCTURNAL SHRA/TSRA MOVING SLOWLY...WITH CELLS SLIDING EAST 5 MPH.
HAVE SMALL AREA SHRA/TSRA OVER DFW/DAL NOW...AND ANOTHER AREA IN
PALO PINTO COUNTY MOVING EAST THAT WILL MAKE DFW AT 830 AM IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER. NOCTURNALS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS LLVL JET
WEAKENS. BUT...AS FRONT MOVES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT NEW SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY FRONTAL LIFT. TIMING IS TOUGH CALL...BUT
MORNING STORMS LIKELY ENDING BY 9 AM...AND AFTERNOON STORMS
BEGINNING 1 PM. WACO LIKELY GOING TO MISS THE MORNING STORMS...BUT
SHOULD GET AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
METROPLEX.    84

UPDATE...
605 AM
WAS ON THE FENCE EARLIER...BUT GIVEN THE SLOWLY MOVING STORMS THAT
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED...HAVE DECIDED TO GO ON AND ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN
EASTLAND...TO CLEBURNE...TO CANTON LINE. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON.   #58

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF NORTH
TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ACCORDING TO THE 10/00Z KFWD RAOB
WAS 1.92 INCHES W WHICH IS OVER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MODEL
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...THUS WE
WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...AND BELIEVE THAT WE WILL PROBABLY ISSUE SOME FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS TODAY...BUT AM NOT SURE THAT COVERAGE OF FLASH
FLOODING RAINS WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FFA AT THIS TIME. WE
WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN THE ZONES. THE DAY
SHIFT CAN RECONSIDER ISSUING ISSUING A FFA LATER TODAY. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE RAIN
CHANCES THEN DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS. #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  67  85  65  85 / 100  50  20  10  10
WACO, TX              92  70  87  65  87 /  50  70  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             81  67  83  63  86 /  80  60  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            83  67  85  63  86 / 100  40  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          83  64  85  63  86 / 100  50  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  68  85  65  85 / 100  50  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           88  68  84  64  87 /  70  60  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         92  70  85  65  87 /  60  70  30  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  70  84  66  86 /  40  70  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134.

&&

82/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
735 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
735 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EASTLAND...
WAXAHACHIE...CANTON LINE...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOWLY MOVING STORMS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS.

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W BRIDGEPORT          33.21N  97.81W
09/10/2007                   WISE               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 FEET OF WATER ON FM 1658 NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
813 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW DENTON             33.23N  97.16W
09/10/2007                   DENTON             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTION OF N BONNIE BRAY AND W UNIVERSITY IS
            CLOSED. OTHER INTERSECTIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING CLOSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
912 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DALLAS                  32.79N  96.77W
09/10/2007                   DALLAS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS CLOSED IN DALLAS: GOODNIGHT AT SOUTHWELL, TANNER
            AT X & Y STREETS, SILVAN AT IRVING, AND SEVERAL OTHERS

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