Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE
   TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDY SKIES AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. REGIONAL 88-D MOSAIC IS LIT UP WITH A RATHER BROAD AREA
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE
FRONT AT 21Z EXTENDS ALONG A BIG SPRING TO DECATUR TO GAINESVILLE
LINE. MIXED PRECIPITATION...RANGING FROM RAIN...FZRA...SLEET...AND
SOME POSSIBLE SNOWFLAKES /IN DEEPER COLDER AIR OVER NORTHERN OK/ HAS
BEEN REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS SLACKED OFF...AS SURFACE WINDS PRESENTLY RANGE FROM CALM TO
5-10KTS AT SOME OBSERVATION SITES IN OK.

HEAVY RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE SHALLOW COLD DEPTH WILL LIKELY
TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FROM ALOFT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...BEFORE THE
FRONT DIGS DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF A CISCO TO MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE WILL
BE AFFECTED FIRST...AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY
EARLY EVENING AND TO SUB FREEZING READINGS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO
SHERMAN LINE. WE HAVE UPDATED THE ICE STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE
TARRANT COUNTY/FORT WORTH...BUT KEPT DALLAS COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WATCH AT THIS TIME. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR
WILL TRANSLATE THE METROPLEX. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING
RAIN BY SUNRISE IN THE METROPLEX WILL BE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LIFT WILL TRANSLATE THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. WRF PROGS OF MOISTURE FLUX/MASS CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENSIS BANDS SUGGEST A SLUG OF ENERGY WILL PASS OVER NORTH
TEXAS VERY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A SHORT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF FORCING
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE COMMON MODE OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA MAY CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT COOLS A BIT. ALTHOUGH A
SNOWFLAKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
CWA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SATURATED LAYER WILL LIE
PRIMARILY BELOW THE FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE.

TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
50 DEGREES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT FRIDAY. GFS LAGS SOME PRECIPITATION
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR SEVERAL PERIODS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SUBTLE WAVES RIDE THROUGH THE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW. MED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WILL NOT JUMP
ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  31  31  29  30  24 / 100  80  80  80  20
WACO, TX              43  43  35  35  28 /  90  80  70  80  40
PARIS, TX             32  32  31  33  23 / 100  80  80  80  30
DENTON, TX            30  30  28  29  23 / 100  80  80  80  20
MCKINNEY, TX          32  32  29  30  24 / 100  80  80  80  20
DALLAS, TX            31  31  30  30  24 / 100  80  80  80  20
TERRELL, TX           34  34  31  33  26 / 100  80  80  80  30
CORSICANA, TX         45  45  35  36  28 /  70  80  80  80  50
TEMPLE, TX            51  51  37  37  28 /  70  80  60  80  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ094-095-104>106-119>121-132>134-142>145.

ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ093-103-117-118-130-131-141.

ICE STORM WARNING 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ091-092-100>102-115-116-129.

&&

SCHULTZ

21/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
340 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ICE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
NORTH AND WEST OF A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO SHERMAN LINE. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. AREAS
OF RAIN WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS...AND ON
ROADS AND BRIDGES. MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A CISCO TO GAINESVILLE LINE...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH EXPECTED FARTHER
SOUTH FROM COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO SHERMAN. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF TRAVEL IS ABSOLUTELY
NECESSARY...KEEP AN EXTRA BANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER
IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. EXTENDED POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY WHERE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OCCUR...MAINLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO ASSIST WITH ICE ACCUMULATION REPORTS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DUNN