Flash Flood Warning 382, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.12Z AVIATION UPDATE...COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
AND AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BEST CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT FROM WEAK IMPULSE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX THIS MORNING AND THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS NEW
DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL ALSO
AGAIN BE A PRIMARY FACTOR IN NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL START OFF WITH VCSH IN THE METROPLEX UNDER VFR CONDS...
ALTHOUGH IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST JUST TO THE NORTH FOR REDUCED VSBY
IN PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS. THINK SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP
WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING SO WILL SHOW VCTS BY 15Z
WITH TEMPO TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. WILL SHOW ONSET SLIGHTLY LATER
AT AFW/FTW. FARTHER SOUTH AT WACO...WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT FOR NOW
AS FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMENDMENTS TO PRECIP TIMING LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTN.

91/DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007/

NORTH TX TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
FROM THE WRN GULF ACROSS INTO SRN TX AND NW POLAR STREAM FLOW TO
THE NORTH OVER KS/MO/NRN AR AND OK THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL WILL PERIODICALLY WILL ARRIVE OUT OF W TX/NRN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/EVE HOURS WITH STRONG
SUMMERTIME HEATING DURING THIS TIME OF DAY. BEST COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE NE OF A CISCO...HILLSBORO...ATHENS/PALESTINE LINE DURING
THIS TIME...AS THIS AREA WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEPER
/TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWAT/S (AS EVIDENCED BY GPS-MET DATA AND
LATEST FWD SOUNDING) OVER 2 INCHES. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES A POSSIBILITY AGAIN...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
NOR HEAVY ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLEST N OF I-20 UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...WITH MORE MID TO POSSIBLY
UPPER 90S IN S/SW AREAS FROM WACO/HEARNE/TEMPLE WWD TO LAMPASAS.

IN THE EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE PREV FCST OF DRYING AND WARMING TEMPS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT...AS ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG
POLAR STREAM WELL TO THE NORTH WILL RETURN THE NORMAL LEE-SIDE PRESSURE
FALLS TO OUR NW STRONGER SLY SFC FLOW AND ON SHALLOW MOISTURE TO KEEP
THE HUMIDITY UP. PRETTY TYPICAL STUFF FOR EARLY AUGUST ACROSS NORTH
TX. THIS WILL BE GOOD NEWS FOR BOTH OUTDOOR SUMMER ENTHUSIASTS AND
FOR OUR SWOLLEN AREA LAKES/RIVER. BAD NEWS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
A/C USAGE AND WHAT COMES WITH THAT.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
AFTN/EVE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER SE COUNTIES THROUGH DAY 14...AS
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS CENTER OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  75  92  76  91 /  50  40  50  40  40
WACO, TX              95  75  94  75  92 /  20  20  40  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  74  89  73  93 /  60  40  40  20  40
DENTON, TX            91  74  90  73  92 /  50  40  50  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          91  73  89  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  40
DALLAS, TX            92  76  91  76  92 /  50  40  50  40  40
TERRELL, TX           92  75  90  74  92 /  50  40  50  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         93  74  92  75  92 /  40  20  40  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            95  73  94  75  91 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

5/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
415 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...WITH BEST CHANCES BEING PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF AN
ATHENS TO FORT WORTH TO BOWIE LINE. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DUNN