Flash Flood Warning 280, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 011841
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
140 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

TXC257-012030-
KAUFMAN TX-
141 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTY...

AT 140 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE 
WARNED AREA. THESE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DRIFT SOUTH AND ARE 
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN 
KAUFMAN COUNTY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KEMP...GRAYS 
PRAIRIE AND COTTONWOOD

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER 
TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO 
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3264 9607 3247 9650 3242 9644 3236 9645
      3236 9619 3240 9607

$$

JLD

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 011952
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

TXC257-012002-
KAUFMAN TX-
252 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN KAUFMAN
COUNTY...

THE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE COUNTY BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LAT...LON 3264 9607 3247 9650 3242 9644 3236 9645
      3236 9619 3240 9607

$$

82/JLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

.AVIATION...
1200 PM
ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED TODAY. WEAK NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR
NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX WILL ADD TO CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA AS
WELL...ACTING SIMILAR TO A DRY LINE/COLD FRONT. BIT OF ENHANCED CU
ALREADY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SAT PIX ALONG A LINE FROM
GRAHAM...DFW...MCKINNEY...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THAT LLVL FORCING.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS N TX SEEMS TO BE ENHANCING THE
MORNING CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...AND BY MID AFTERNOON
AREAS SOUTH & SOUTHEAST OF METROPLEX SHOULD HAVE AREAS OF PCPN AS
THAT FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP TSTMS IN METROPLEX AND WACO
TAFS FOR THIS AFTN.   84

&&

.UPDATE...
1116 AM
OLD MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ACTING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAS
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO HILLSBORO TO
LAMPASAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR IS MOVING INTO THE NW CWA AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
OCCURRING. HAVE AMENDED POPS TODAY BY LOWERING THEM IN THE
NORTHWEST AND RAISING THEM ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED AND WIND
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NW CWA.

AS THE UPPER LOW IN OKLAHOMA DROPS SW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE SHEAR AXIS/BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTH AND BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE RED RIVER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND WE WILL LOOK
INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING THE FLOOD WATCH BACK TO LIFE FOR
THIS PART OF THE CWA. MORE ON THIS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007/

AVIATION...
617 AM / 1117 UTC.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SHEAR ZONE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE KDFW
TRACON...AND TO A LESS EXTENT AROUND KACT. ONSET SHOULD BE AROUND
18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS A CONCERN.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN BACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.  SPEEDS AT 13KT OF LESS.

SKIES WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST. VFR FOR THE MOST PART.  KACT COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z...THEN VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
KDFW TRACON SHOULD BE VFR EARLY THEN MVFR A DENSE CU FIELD FORMS
AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
AFTERWARD.  75

PREV DISCUSSION...
418 AM.
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL SINK SOUTHWEST AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BACK ACROSS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE. HAVE INCLUDED
HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND...SOME LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SOME FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT THE AREAL
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WITH BETTER LIFT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND GREATER AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIME PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK..BUT WE SHOULD SEE THEM WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  73  86  72  88 /  40  60  60  50  40
WACO, TX              89  74  88  74  89 /  40  30  60  40  50
PARIS, TX             84  71  85  72  88 /  70  70  70  40  50
DENTON, TX            89  73  86  71  89 /  40  60  60  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          88  71  86  71  89 /  50  60  60  50  40
DALLAS, TX            89  74  87  74  88 /  40  60  60  50  40
TERRELL, TX           87  73  85  73  87 /  60  60  70  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         88  73  87  71  88 /  60  40  70  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            90  73  87  72  87 /  50  30  60  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1055 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE THE OTHER MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN DAILY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLOODING REPORTS.