Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 121149
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648

TXC289-293-121230-
LIMESTONE TX-LEON TX-
648 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT FOR LEON
AND LIMESTONE COUNTIES...

AT 643 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS FROM LIMESTONE 
COUNTY REPORTED WATER OVER FM 937 AND ALONG PORTIONS OF FM 39 SOUTH 
OF MEXIA. ROADS ACROSS LEON COUNTY...PARTICULARLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 
45 ARE LIKELY EXPERIENCING SOME WATER PROBLEMS AS WELL. 

LOOK FOR THE HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH 
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH 730 AM...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 45 MPH POSSIBLE RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA...WHERE 
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED. 

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3122 9631 3136 9631 3125 9661 3167 9685
      3171 9647 3142 9624 3157 9588 3130 9572
      3115 9575 3111 9580 3111 9597 3099 9623

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
247 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TUES NIGHT)
BUSY MORNING AS EXPECTED...AS FIRST OF SEVERAL S/W DISTURBANCES
LIFTED OUT THIS PAST EVENING DEVELOPING THE FIRST LINEAR MCS SEEN IN
A LONG WHILE OVER TEXAS. MCV/OUTFLOW RESIDUAL FROM ACTIVITY 24 HRS
HAD PUSHED OLD FRONT/AND SFC LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER DEEP S TX
...RESULTING IN MORE OF A LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN EVENT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER WITH LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH...BUT MAINLY OVER
SRN COUNTIES. HAVE INDICATED THIS FOR POPS FOR TODAY. NRN FRINGE
OF MCS/STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO LINGER UP THROUGH I-20
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EMBEDDED...HEAVIER THUNDER LINGERING OVER
FAR SE COUNTIES NEAR CAMERON...MARLIN...HEARNE AND PALESTINE. WILL
MAKE LAST MINUTE DECISION THIS MORNING FOR POPS UP FARTHER NWD PER
RADAR/SATELLITE CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

HAVE DECIDED TO MASSAGE POPS AND CONVECTIVE TYPE THROUGH THE NEXT
48-72 HRS...AS THERES SEEMS TO BE SOME AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF
DISTURBANCES. BY AFTERNOON...WILL HOLD HIGHEST POPS FAR SE...WHILE
TONING THINGS DOWN UP THIS WAY AND OVER NW COUNTIES...AS CURRENT
MCS PROPAGATES TOWARD THE UPPER TX COASTLINE...LIKELY ROBBING ANY
INFLOW UP THIS WAY IN MORE STABILIZED AIRMASS. HAVE TONED QPFS DOWN
AS WELL...EXCEPT OVER SE COUNTIES. AS UPPER LOW SPINS OVER W TX/NM
THROUGH TUES MORNING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER S/W DISTURBANCE
EJECT E/ENWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX WITH ANOTHER MCS LIKELY DOWN THAT
WAY. WILL HAVE LOW POPS NORTH...TO HIGHER POPS WELL S OF I-20 CLOSER
TO INVERTED TROUGH/OLD BOUNDARY...WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INFLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BE REALIZED ON NRN PERIPHERY OF EXPECT MON
NIGHT MCS. WILL HAVE SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL S OF A
LAMPASAS...WACO...ATHENS LINE...BUT LIGHT ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST ITS A
WELCOME RAIN.

OUR PESKY UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN A SLOW TRANSITION E/NEWD LATE
TUES /TUES NIGHT AS ENERGY DIGS TO OUR NORTH IN NRN STREAM OF POLAR
BRANCH OF WLYS. BEST THETA-E AXIS AND LIFT WILL REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR
FAR E/SE COUNTIES...WITH BEST INFLOW INTO THOSE AREAS...THUS HELD
BEST POPS OVER SE COUNTIES-TO MUCH LOWER NW. NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY
MEANS FOR NRN 1/2 OF N TX...BUT WELCOME ANYWAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND ANY DISSIPATION THEREOF. EXPECT
W/SW AREAS TO BE THE WARMEST...COOLER FURTHER N/NE YOU GO. STAYED
CONSERVATIVE HERE AND DIDNT VENTURE FAR OFF MOS GUIDANCE VALUES
WITH UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WED AND BEYOND)
OUR UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSIVE VENTURE EWD ACROSS N TX
AND SLOWLY AWAY WED INTO WED NIGHT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS/WX DOWN
WEST-EAST ACCORDINGLY. NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER BY MIDDAY THURS...AND MOVE THRU AT LEAST THOSE AREAS I-20/NWD.
THUS COOLEST TEMPS UP TOWARD THE RED RIVER...BUT STILL WARM IN THE
SOUTH. ITLL BECOME BRISK AND MUCH COOLER BY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING...WITH POLAR TAP OF AIRMASS. NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 60S MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE MODIFYING BY SUN
INTO MON. KEPT FCST DRY...AS MOISTURE LOOKS RELATIVELY SHALLOW FOR
ANY REASONABLE POP/WX MENTION BEHIND COLD FRONT. SO DRY/COOLER WILL BE
THE THEME IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  58  72  57  76 /  60  20  40  50  30
WACO, TX              70  59  72  58  76 /  70  40  60  60  40
PARIS, TX             67  56  70  57  72 /  60  20  40  60  50
DENTON, TX            67  56  72  57  75 /  50  20  40  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          67  55  70  57  75 /  60  20  40  50  30
DALLAS, TX            69  60  71  58  76 /  60  20  40  50  30
TERRELL, TX           68  59  71  59  74 /  80  20  50  60  40
CORSICANA, TX         69  59  71  60  74 /  90  40  60  70  40
TEMPLE, TX            73  60  72  58  76 /  60  50  70  70  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
500 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE WEST LINGERS IN THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

TXZ102-116-117-131-133-120900-
WISE TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-JOHNSON TX-HOOD TX-
336 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HOOD COUNTY
  JOHNSON COUNTY
  PALO PINTO COUNTY
  PARKER COUNTY
  WISE COUNTY

AT 336 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS IDENTIFIED A
REGION OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 5 AM.

LAT...LON 3221 9740 3332 9761 3317 9774 3274 9846
      3229 9755

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
412 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

TXZ118-119-133-144-145-157>159-121045-
TARRANT TX-DALLAS TX-JOHNSON TX-HILL TX-BOSQUE TX-MCLENNAN TX-
CORYELL TX-BELL TX-
412 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  BELL COUNTY
  BOSQUE COUNTY
  CORYELL COUNTY
  DALLAS COUNTY
  HILL COUNTY
  JOHNSON COUNTY
  MCLENNAN COUNTY
  TARRANT COUNTY

AT 412 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS IDENTIFIED
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK EDGE OF A RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS.  THROUGH 6
AM...EAST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3078 9746 3165 9716 3295 9693 3292 9751
      3085 9788

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
443 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 AM     FLOOD            3 NNW MARLIN            31.35N  96.91W
03/12/2007                   FALLS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOOD SOAKING RAIN...BUT STARTING TO GET WATER OVER LOW
            INDENTIONS OF HWY 6 NNW OF MARLIN. ISSUED FFW.