Flash Flood Warning 144, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

.AVIATION...
555 AM.
A WEAK STATIONARY UPPER LOW AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
AGAIN RESULT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE KDFW TRACON THIS
MORNING...THEN LIFTING TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE
NIGHT. MVFR CIGS RETURN 08Z AND AFTERWARD. COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS/VIS DURING THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS FOR KACT...VERY SIMILAR SITUATION EXCEPT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH PUSHES NORTHWARD.

WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-10KT.  75

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...  410 AM.
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAS
BEEN MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN DURING THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SEVERAL WEAK VORTICES ACROSS THE REGION...ONE OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
MOVING NORTHEAST...ANOTHER OVER OVER WEST TEXAS MOVING EAST...
ANOTHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LIFTING NORTH. WE WILL REMAIN IN A
MOIST AIRMASS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 00Z KFWD RAOB SHOWED THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.47 INCHES...ABOUT 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR TODAY. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST FOR TODAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL SHIFT TO EAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE RED RIVER
THURSDAY...AND MAY SINK INTO NORTH TEXAS BRIEFLY LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  67  83  69  85 /  70  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              79  68  84  68  84 /  90  30  30  20  20
PARIS, TX             77  65  80  65  83 /  60  40  60  30  40
DENTON, TX            80  67  83  68  84 /  60  30  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  81  68  83 /  70  40  40  20  20
DALLAS, TX            80  68  83  69  85 /  70  30  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           79  67  83  67  85 /  70  40  50  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         79  67  82  68  84 /  70  40  50  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            79  68  84  68  84 /  90  30  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-131>135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

75/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
410 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS EAST OF A GAINESVILLE...FORT WORTH...GOLDTHWAITE LINE
THROUGH 7 PM. SINCE MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS SATURATED...ANY PERIOD OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.