Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
345 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

INITIAL ROUND OF WAA SHWRS AND TSTMS MOVG EWD ACRS FCST AREA AT FCST
TIME PRETTY MUCH ON SCHED. WAA AND SHRTWV SUPPORT FOR THIS PASSES ON
E/NE BY LATE MRNG AND WE ARE LEFT WITH INCRG WARMNG...CAP...AND
WINDS. WILL CONT THE IDEA OF A DRY AFTN XCP CHC MENTION FAR SW LATE
AFTN. STORMS SHUD STILL BREAK LOOSE W OF AREA AT THAT TIME AND SPRD
INTO WRN ESPLY NWRN FCST AREA THIS EVE. SVR STORM THREAT OBVIOUSLY
THERE THO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET INTO THE SERN FCST AREA. STILL
EXPECT STORMS TO GET GOING HALFWAYS DISCREETLY THEN ORGANIZE INTO
LINE OR CLUSTER. SPC MODERATE RISK LOOKS GOOD ESPLY FOR WRN PART OF
FCST AREA. THIS THREAT MAY CONT TO MOVE EWD DURG TNGT GIVEN CONTG
STG WIND FIELDS

SPEAKING OF STG WNDS...WILL KEEP WIND ADVY AS IS 18Z TO MIDNIGHT OR
05Z. LEAVING NRN TIER FROM HON TO BKX IS SPLITTING HAIRS BUT WIND
GUIDANCE CONTS TO SHOW A LITTLE LESS WIND UP THERE...A LTL LESS STG
ON BL WINDS NWRN EDGE OF FCST AREA AND HEATG/MIXG NOT AS STG...SO
WILL LEAVE AS IS...FOR NOW. IN ANY EVENT WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DCRS
TNGT AND NAM/NAM12 CONTS TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN BL WNDS PAST 00Z
ESPLY ERN HALF OF FCST AREA. THESE WINDS FIELDS WILL CONT TO KEEP
SFC WNDS STG THRU THIS EVE AS WELL AS ALLOWING SVR THREAT TO PERSIST
MUCH OF TNGT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY THU INTO ERY THU EVE AS UPPER LOW
MOVES ACRS. INDEED AM TEMPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY/NMRS POPS BUT WILL
KEEP SCT FOR NOW. GOOD INSTBLTY IF NOT AS DEEP AND GOOD UPPER
SUPPORT.

COMPLEX SYS SHUD FINALLY MOVE BY THU NGT AND MAKE FRI A DRY AND MILD
DAY. LTL CHANGE IN EXTENDED PD FOR SAT THRU TUE. TSTM THREAT GNLY
BUILDS ITS WAY BACK IN AS CNTRL/SRN PLAINS RIDGING HELPS UPPER FLOW
GO ZONAL AND ALLOW FOR WEAK SHRTWVS TO HELP TRIGEGR CONVECTION.

TEMPS WILL WARM PRETTY GOOD TDA...CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...AND ESPLY SRN
PART OF FCST AREA. COOLING FROM THE NW FOR THU...THEN GNLY MILD
TEMPS THRU REST OF FCST PD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TS WL MAKE THEIR PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE 3 KFSD TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THE CONVECTION WL LIKELY END AT KHON FIRST...BY AROUND 11Z
TO 12Z. BUT COULD LINGER OFF AND ON IN THE KSUX AND KFSD AREAS UNTIL
MID MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALL DUE TO STOUT WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT AND A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BECOME VERY
WINDY TODAY BY LATE MORNING...LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE WIND FM THE SOUTH. THEN A VERY POTENT UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRES AND CDFNT WL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A SQUALL LINE THRU THE FSD FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
EXCEPT UNDER TS...CONDS WL BE VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. UNDER TS...ONE
CAN EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDS...POSSIBLY IFR...WITH ERRATIC WIND
BEHAVIOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR SDZ050-054>071.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

WILLIAMS/MJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
553 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-071200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
553 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM A PICKSTOWN TO
BROOKINGS LINE AND EAST...WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NUMEROUS AND ALSO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE SHOULD BE
THE GREATEST INITIAL THREAT BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
OVER 60 MPH WILL INCREASE EARLY  TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING,,,MAINLY FROM THE JAMES RIVER AND
WEST.

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 6 PM

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WILLIAMS