Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 301959
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
300 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

SDC079-302015-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-070930T2015Z/
LAKE SD-
300 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...

AT 300 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MADISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL LAKE COUNTY THROUGH 315 PM CDT

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4409 9691 4405 9696 4405 9697 4404 9697
      4390 9716 4390 9719 4396 9728 4414 9718
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 223DEG 25KT 4402 9711

$$

CJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
225 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WILL BE
WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...STORMS
REMAINING ELEVATED AND MULTICELLULAR AND LOW CENTROID...NOT MUCH OF
A CONCERN. HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE INTO NW
IA WHERE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS QUICKLY DESTABILIZING THE BNDRY
LAYER. IF STRATO CU FILLS IN...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE
STORMS...BUT IF INDIVIDUAL CELLS CAN POP FREE OF STRATUS...THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS WEATHER QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST THIS
EVENING TAKING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. CLEAR SKIES
OVER WRN SD UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A NICE DAY TOMORROW WITH
CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH WILL
BECOME A BIT BREEZY IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES.

STILL EXPECTING THE NEXT STRONG UPPER WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CRASHING ON TO THE NW PAC COAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA ON TUE.
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES N AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MON NIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL SHEAR. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA A GOOD BET FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFT...THEN RAPIDLY CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING.

IN THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PINNING DOWN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS...AS UPPER WAVE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
FROM ZONAL FLOW MID WEEK TO ZONAL FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH UPPER TROF DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. MAINLY LOOKS
DRY WED THRU SAT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SRN STREAM S/WV AT
SOME POINT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. GFS HAS ACCELERATED EWRD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT THIS COMING WEEKEND BY
ABOUT A FULL DAY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL A BIT SLOWER...THEREFORE
RELUCTANT TO MAKE LARGE CHANGES SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEPT EXTENDED FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AT FSD AND SUX BUT ENDING BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AT SUX AND FSD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BUT THEN CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING
WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

LIEBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
945 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-011200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
945 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.	ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.