Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 160254
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
954 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

SDC005-160304-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-070616T0315Z/
BEADLE SD-
954 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BEADLE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER SEVERE.

LAT...LON 4463 9787 4439 9870 4431 9868 4444 9786

$$
RSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CDFNT DROPPING S THRU NRN SD WL STALL LATE TONIGHT ALONG I90.
ISOLD TRW CURRENTLY OVR NRN CWA DEVELOPED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE
REACHED AND ALONG A NARROW AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE. FELL THRU
EVE...MOST OF ACTVY WITH BE ISOLD AND LIMITED TO AREAS N OF I90.
LATER IN THE EVE...STONGER S/W WL INTERACT WITH SFC BNDRY AND ALSO
INCREASE LLJ SLIGHTLY. SO WUD EXPECT SCT TRW TO DEVELOP ACRS NRN CWA
DURING NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS I90. CUD BE A FEW SVR STORMS
WITH HAIL MAIN THREAT...BUT AS DAYTIME HTG DISAPPEARS...SVR THREAT
SHUD BE OVER. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGH ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS WEAK
CONVERGENCE NR FNT SHUD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT.

LATE NIGHT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER SW MN. THAT SHOULD
EXIT BY MID MORNING. THAT WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BNDY/FRONT NEAR I90
BY LATE MORNING. NO REAL CAP EXISTS ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY AND BOTH GFS
AND MET SUGGEST THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LIFT
AND WARMING WILL ERODE ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
BASED UPON MEAN WIND FLOW...THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH.
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SHOULD KEEP ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PROGRESSSING TOO FAR SOUTH AND SFC BNDY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTH SO EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF I90 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR TOMORROW IS
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KTS...SO IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR IT
WOULD BE PULSE HAIL AND THAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED GIVEN
RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY.  HIGHS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS AGAIN IN THE 60S.  NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...THE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN...THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE NORTH LEAVING ANY ELEVATED THREAT
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP AND HAVE KEPT
LOWS MILD AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE AND WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG.  EXPECT THAT BUFFALO RIDGE AND EAST WILL SEE LOWS NEAR 70 AS
SSW 40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS AND 925 MB TEMPS ARE ABOVE 20 C. SUNDAY WILL
BE A WINDY...HUMID AND VERY WARM DAY.  EXPECT THAT DEW POINTS WILL
BE APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AND TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOWER
90S IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL PLACE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S SO IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR. CWA WILL BE
VERY CAPPED AS 700 MB TEMPS ARE +13 TO +16 AND MLCIN OF -250 TO -500
J/KG. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER WAVE REMAINS WELL WEST OF
THE CWA. THEREFORE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS REALLY MOVED
TOWARD THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FOR EVOLUTION
INTO MID WEEK. IN FACT...EXPECT THAT A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
IS MOST LIKELY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE PV ANOMALY ON MONDAY
SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AS A STRONGER SECOND WAVE
DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WOULD MEAN A WEAKER FROPA THAT WOULD
SLOW AS IT MOVE EAST OF I29 ON MONDAY MORNING. IT WOULD ALSO MEAN
LESS COOLING ALOFT AND PREVENT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION LIKELY NOT REACHING
THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET AND HAVE ONLY 20 POPS GOING INTO
NW IA LATE IN THE NIGHT. ONLY WENT ABOVE 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN EAST
CENTRAL SD TOWARD MARSHALL MN. ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. EXPECT THAT IT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR I80
DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
MORNING CONVECTION SEEMS LESS LIKELY IN NW IA...THE FRONT MAY STILL
BE AROUND KSPW AND KSLB MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RAISED POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO 50. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY FALL SOME BUT THE DRY AIR
WILL STUGGLE TO GO TOO FAR SOUTH OF I90 AS FLOW WILL QUICKLY SWITCH
TO SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS CLOSER
TO 60 ON MONDAY NIGHT.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...HAVE REALLY SIDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED ALTHOUGH TOWARD NEXT THU AND FRI...IT MAY BE TOO AMPLIFIED.
THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAD SEVERAL MEMBERS THAT WERE SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THIS MODEL. THE 12Z GFS
HAS ALSO MOVED IN THIS DIRECTION AND EXPECTATION IS THAT A STRONGER
WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN THE GFS IS
CURRENLTY SHOWING. THIS WILL MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW THE
SURFACE BOUNARY TO APPROACH THE IOWA AND MINNESOTA BORDER DURING THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL COME NORTH AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECTATION
IS THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES AND
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT SOMETIME FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SECOND WAVE VERY UNCERTAIN...KEPT
POPS RELATIVELY LOW OVER 24 H RATHER THAN TRYING TO TIME SPECIFIC
TIME AND GO FOR 40 OR 50 POPS.  TEMPS ON THU AND FRI WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. IT SHOULD ALSO STAY WARM ON TUE NIGHT WITH SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN.  ONCE THIS SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. WHILE
ECMWF IS LIKELY OVERDONE ON COOLING...EXPECT MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU THE NIGHT ALTHO PATCHY FOG CUD DVELOP NR WEAK CDFNT
APPROACHING I90. SCT TRW WL BE PSBL THRU 12Z MAINLY N OF I90 AND
COUD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.

&&

SCHUMACHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
956 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-161200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
956 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES INTERSTATE 90. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A MARSHALL TO HURON LINE. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREAS
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FROM NEAR HURON TO
MARSHALL MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH A FEW NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH TOWARDS INTERSTATE 90.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS A
RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 29.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.