Snow Advisory 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST FRI DEC 07 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MOGOLLON RIM AND ADJACENT LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WILL SEE AREAS OF STRONG WINDS TODAY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA MOVES TOWARD THE STATE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THIS MORNING. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO ARIZONA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH TODAY...
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION LIMITED
TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND ABOVE
8000 FEET ELSEWHERE. A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THROUGH 3AM MST SATURDAY. THIS STORM
WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS WITH A WIDE AREA OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH THIS MORNING. LOCATIONS SUCH AS DONEY PARK AND HIGHWAY 89
NORTH OF DONEY PARK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS OF AROUND 55 MPH AS
WIND IS FUNNELED OVER AND AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. AS A
RESULT...A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

ELSEWHERE...SNOW IMPACTS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS MOVE INTO PLACE. RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING FOR FLAGSTAFF...AND THEN SATURDAY
FOR MOST AREAS ABOVE 4500 FEET.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION IN ITS WAKE. ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO THE
NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
PRECIPITATION AGAIN OVER ARIZONA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SECOND WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 3500 AND
4000 FEET.

THE LAST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW. WEAK
RIDGING TAKES PLACE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY).

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH 02Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ENTERING NW AZ AT 10Z WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO ARIZONA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION TODAY.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING INTO EAST CENTRAL AZ
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
1)SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SATURDAY FOR ZONE 004.
2)WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR ZONES 012 THROUGH 017.
3)SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON ON SATURDAY FOR ZONE 017.

&&

MAS/JJ

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