Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1030 AM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. STORMS WILL FORM AGAIN BETWEEN
1030 AM MST TO 1130 AM MST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE FLOW IS WEAKER TODAY SO THAT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE LOWER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EFFECTING THE VALLEYS
AND LOWER TERRAIN OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE LITTLE COLORADO AND
CHINLE RIVER VALLEYS. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES...PRODUCING AN ISOLATED THREAT
OF FLOODING FROM THE NORTHERN GILA MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND CHINLE VALLEYS...ALONG WITH
PORTIONS OF THE COCONINO PLATEAU AND YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
VERDE AND AGUA FRIA DRAINAGE BASINS.

GRIDDED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHCS IN ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS. ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO REFLECT CHANGES TO
THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THROUGH 02Z WEDS...EXPECT
SCT-BKN130-150 MSL WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. STORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 04-06Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

TC/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-150700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. STORMS WILL FORM AGAIN BETWEEN 1000 AM MST TO 1100
AM MST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW
IS WEAKER TODAY SO THAT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EFFECTING THE VALLEYS AND LOWER TERRAIN OF
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE LITTLE COLORADO AND CHINLE RIVER VALLEYS. THE
MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
RAINFALL RATES...PRODUCING AN ISOLATED THREAT OF FLOODING
FROM THE NORTHERN GILA MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND CHINLE VALLEYS...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE
COCONINO PLATEAU AND YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VERDE AND AGUA
FRIA DRAINAGE BASINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.