Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 30, 2007Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 30, 2007, 12:48 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 30, 2007, 12:48 PM MST (19:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 30, 2007, 1:15 PM MST
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 611 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1168 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -21 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 30, 9:20 AM MST, 3 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 9:20 AM MST, 3 hours 28 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST MON JUL 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE EASTERLY FLOW TO ARIZONA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST FLOW ALONG WITH A CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. MORNING
KFGZ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AGAIN INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH WITH VERY UNSTABLE LIMITED INDEX VALUES
PERSISTING. STORM MOTION TODAY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE EAST AND LIGHT
AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOSTLY SMALL HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY TODAYS STORMS.

BEYOND TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MECHANISM APPEARS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
THAT WOULD RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS...WE CAN EXPECT THE DAILY CONVECTIVE PROCESS OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK.

KD

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT TO BKN CIGS FROM 9-11 KFT AGL
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z-19Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH ISOLD
-SHRA. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY 18Z...AND WILL
SPREAD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 19Z-20Z. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 70 PERCENT WITH SCT MVFR CONDITIONS AND WDLY
SCT IFR CONDITIONS. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 02Z-04Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 30, 9:45 AM MST, 3 hours 3 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 29, 5:53 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Gila	97 min
Jul 29, 6:02 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Navajo	28 min
Jul 29, 6:45 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Navajo	2 hr
Jul 29, 8:32 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Gila	88 min
Jul 30, 12:32 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	28 min
Jul 30, 12:58 PM MST	Flash Flood Watch	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	7 hr
Jul 30, 12:59 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	31 min
Jul 30, 1:49 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	26 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.