Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 052210
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
307 PM MST THU JUL 5 2007

AZC005-052217-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070705T2215Z/
COCONINO AZ-
307 PM MST THU JUL 5 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 315 PM MST...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER 
PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS. EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH TO 
CONTINUE ACROSS FLAGSTAFF...DONEY PARK...KACHINA VILLAGE... 
MOUNTAINAIRE...AND MUNDS PARK THROUGH 330 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3526 11137 3549 11211 3516 11231 3500 11230
      3499 11182 3490 11158

$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
210 PM MST THU JUL 05 2007

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND.
LOOK FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH ABOUT SATURDAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...DEFIANCE PLATEAU...KAIBAB PLATEAU...AND SAN
FRANCISCO PEAKS. 24-HOUR CHANGES IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE REMAIN
IMPRESSIVE WITH INCREASES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES OBSERVED ALMOST
EVERYWHERE EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY.

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A SHIFT OF THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
A MORE EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL INTRODUCE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE.
LOOK FOR SOME INCREASED RAINSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A
RESULT.

BEGINNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND PRODUCE DRIER TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE STATE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE
ACCORDINGLY.

WATCH FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TO DECREASE TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDINESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ABOUT 15K MSL. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

GH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST THU JUL 5 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-060700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

DB