Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 170135
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
631 PM MST WED MAY 16 2007

AZC001-017-170141-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070517T0145Z/
NAVAJO AZ-APACHE AZ-
631 PM MST WED MAY 16 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN APACHE AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM PROMPTING THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO
LONGER SEVERE. KEEP IN MIND...HOWEVER THAT THIS STORM PRODUCED
UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN 530 AND 630 PM MST. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY WASHES IN THE AREA TO
BEGIN FLOWING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOWING WATER ON FOOT
OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3393 10998 3383 10979 3401 10961 3414 10982

$$

DJO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
235 PM MST WED MAY 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF TO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHEASTWARD RESULTING FROM MOIST OUTFLOW FROM
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NM YESTERDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THIS
AREA HAVE INCREASED ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES SINCE YESTERDAY...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A FEW ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM OFF THE
BAJA CA COAST WILL INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NIGHTLY DECOUPLING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STAY RESIDENT OVER THE
AREA...AND PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST EACH DAY AS A RESULT OF
OUTFLOWS FROM ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WHICH FORM. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEST OF
THE GRAND CANYON SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TEND TO SHIFT FLOW TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL TEND TO DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND AROUND HALF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST. AS THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SOLUTION...HAVE ONLY TRENDED THE FORECAST PART
WAY TOWARD THE COLDER AND WETTER SOLUTION THAT THIS IMPLIES...WITH
POPS ONLY FOR THE WETTER NORTHERN ZONES AND ABOUT A 4 DEGREE
DOWNTREND IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IF THIS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN LATER PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KCEZ THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA
14K FT MSL WILL PERSIST THROUGH 08Z BEFORE DECREASING. ON
THURSDAY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
APACHE COUNTY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

ONTON/41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST WED MAY 16 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-170700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST WED MAY 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

INCREASING MOISTURE FROM NEW MEXICO WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE
OVER SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FAR
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS
MAY PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE BEST AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.