Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS85 KFGZ 182025
RFWFGZ

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
125 PM MST WED APR 18 2007

AZZ108-118-137-190200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070419T0200Z/
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108)-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 118)-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 137)-
125 PM MST WED APR 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS FROM 40 TO
50 MPH. AS CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL THEN CLIMB TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL
AND WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL DURING THE WARNING PERIOD. A
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

000 
WWUS85 KFGZ 190139
RFWFGZ

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
639 PM MST WED APR 18 2007

AZZ108-118-137-190245-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070419T0200Z/
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108)-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 118)-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 137)-
639 PM MST WED APR 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 15 PERCENT THIS EVENING...THUS THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST WED APR 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS...FOR TODAY...A DRY STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG BUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AS A RESULT...STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE UTAH BORDER WHERE
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND SAND. OVER THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. SEE PRODUCT PHXNPWFGZ FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
WIND EVENT.

TONIGHT...STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN AND THE CURRENT STORM RAPIDLY HEADS TO THE
EAST. FOR THURSDAY...WARM DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE SAME STORY REPEATS...A SERIES OF
VIGOROUS WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA. THE
NEXT IN THIS SERIES WILL HIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. YET AGAIN...ANOTHER STORM
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS HEADING FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ALAS...MILD SPRING WEATHER IS BUT A DREAM.

MCCOLLUM

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AFTER 18Z AND LASTING UNTIL
ABOUT SUNSET...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 KT WILL BE COMMON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

KD
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 7
        MST FOR AZ ZONES 009-010-012-013-039-040...

     ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 6 AM MST
        TO 7 PM MST FOR AZ ZONES 004>007-015...

     ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 10 AM MST
        TO 7 PM MST FOR AZ ZONES 008-011-014-016>018-037-038...

     ...FIRE WX WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON
        UNTIL 7PM MST AZ FIRE WX ZONES 108/118/137...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
421 AM MST WED APR 18 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-190000-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
421 AM MST WED APR 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 45 TO 65
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD TO
THE UTAH BORDER WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...SEE PRODUCT PHXNPWFGZ FOR DETAILS ON THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH VISIBILITIES
FALLING TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SOME AREAS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES ARIZONA. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.