Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 271622
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 AM MST MON AUG 27 2007

AZC005-271618-
COCONINO AZ-
908 AM MST MON AUG 27 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
COCONINO COUNTY...

AT 900 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT RAINFALL HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE FREDONIA AND THE JOHNSON 
CREEK DRAINAGE. RADAR INDICATED THAT AS MUCH AS AN INCH TO AN INCH 
AND A HALF OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE AREA...BUT NO REPORTS OF 
FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS CAN BE 
EXPECTED IN AREA WASHES AND STREAMS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.

LAT...LON 3669 11262 3677 11225 3700 11221 3700 11255

$$

BAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST MON AUG 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF ARIZONA WILL CAUSE MOIST
CONDITIONS AND DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA...BRINGING A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SUSTAINING
AND INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE ALONG THE THE AZ/UT BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER MIDLEVEL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT
NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE INCREASED WIND PROFILE WILL LEND TO
HELPING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO OUR WEST BY
TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
AS THIS HAPPENS THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERNLY DIRECTION
ALLOWING DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR WILL HELP BRING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND DROP SOUTH INTO
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. THE MIDLEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL HELP BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH NRN AZ TODAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NRN
AZ BORDER THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
17Z...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AZ...WITH
ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFT 02Z TUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

TC/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN AUG 26 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-270700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST SUN AUG 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS LOCALLY HEAVY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT TODAY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN SOME AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BEGIN A DRYING TREND FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.