Winter Storm Watch 6, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
325 AM CST MON DEC 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SFC RIDGE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
VALLEY THIS AM...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST. A STRONG
WAVE IS CRASHING ONTO THE NW PACIFIC COAST...WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. WE LIKE THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN PORTRAYAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM TOO
WARM INITIALLY. THE GFS TRADITIONALLY DOES BETTER WITH PACIFIC
WAVES IN THE 24-36HR TIME FRAME BECAUSE IT IS A SPECTRAL
MODEL...AND EXPECT THIS PERFORMANCE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS NEXT
CLIPPER.

FOR TODAY...WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT WILL SKIRT THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS TO THE
NORTH...WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH MOISTURE STREAMING EAST IN MOISTENING NW FLOW.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COUPLED UPPER JET
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN NW/W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-850MB LAYER WILL
COUPLE WITH OMEGA THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
THROUGH A GOOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE LATE TONIGHT AND TUE
FROM DVL-GFK-PKD...WHERE BANDING POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 0.50
INCHES...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY SNOW PRODUCTION FROM
PAST CASE STUDIES. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE IN THE 15-17:1 RATIO IN THE
NORTH AND 13:1 IN THE SOUTH PER THE ROEBBER NEURAL NETWORK. MODEL
QPF IN THE 0.30-0.40 RANGE WOULD SUPPORT A 6-8 INCH SNOW BAND FROM
DVL- GFK- PKD (THIS LINES UP WELL HPC THINKING). THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/IP MIX IN THE FAR SE AS WELL AND
WILL MENTION. THE NAM IS MUCH WARMER AND WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ND...BUT THIS APPEARS THE OUTLIER AND
TOO WARM...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THEREFORE...WITH
CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH OF 6+ INCH SNOW POTENTIAL IN ALL BUT THE
FAR NE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TONIGHT-TUE. WILL
TIME THE WATCH INTO THE DVL BASIN AFTER 06Z TUE AND BRING IT TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z TUE. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
THAT SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST IN THE DVL-GFK AREA AROUND THE TUE
MORNING RUSH...MAKING FOR A TRICKY COMMUTE. THERE WON/T BE MUCH
WIND WITH SYSTEM...SO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME ICE SOUTH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS BY TUE IN ALL AREAS AND
MENTION HEAVY SNOW AS WELL FROM DVL-GFK- PKD.

BY WED...WEAK HIGH SETTLES IN FROM CANADA AND A DRY/COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED. A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW WED NIGHT AND
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR THU-SUN...CONTINUED COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME SNOW MAINLY SOUTH ON SAT. OTHERWISE...A DEEP SNOW PACK WILL
MAY CAUSE TEMPS TO BE EVEN COLDER THAN WE HAVE ADVERTISED...SO
SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE LATER
TONIGHT WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-053.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MNZ002-003-008-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

DK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>