Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 050437
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

MNC107-050515-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070705T0515Z/
NORMAN MN-
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR NORMAN COUNTY...

AT 1135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOCKHART...OR 41 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND FORKS...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ABOUT...
  6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ADA BY 1140 PM CDT...
  7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GARY BY 1145 PM CDT...
  TWIN VALLEY BY 1155 PM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4748 9627 4749 9678 4722 9661 4722 9609

$$

HOPKINS

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 050500
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

MNC107-050510-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070705T0515Z/
NORMAN MN-
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORMAN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 1159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF TWIN VALLEY...OR 35 MILES
NORTHEAST OF FARGO...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE SO 
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 4748 9627 4749 9678 4722 9661 4722 9609

$$

HOPKINS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
923 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

.UPDATE...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER HAVE
WEAKENED AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. A 25-30 KNOT 850 MB JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE STORMS
PROBABLY DID NOT PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN SUSTAINING THEM AND WOULD
NOT THINK THE STORMS COULD MAINTAIN AS ELEVATED CELLS. KEPT
SCATTERED STORMS GOING AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS MAHNOMEN AS THEY HEAD
THAT WAY AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND REMOVED STORMS ELSEWHERE.
FORECASTS OTHERWISE LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE AND NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT
NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 136 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007/

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN INITIAL CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND GFS PORTRAYS THE STRONG CAP ON SATURDAY THE
BEST SO WILL UTILIZE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND ISOLATED
SOUTH UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...ALONG WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND GENERAL WESTERLY SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SPC HAS INCLUDED ALL BUT THE SOUTH IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WON/T MENTION SEVERE IN THE GRIDS...BUT HAVE
UPDATED THE HWO AND GRAPHICAL WEATHER STORY TO REFLECT ABOVE
THINKING.

FOR THU-SAT...EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. SATURDAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM...WITH THE MERCURY LIKELY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTHEAST. A VERY STRONG CAP WILL DEVELOP...WITH 700MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO +14C. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES WILL BE OVER 3000J/KG IF ANYTHING
COULD BREAK CAP ALONG FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
ANY THUNDER TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT...ONCE BETTER MID LEVEL
COOLING ADVECTS IN FROM THE NW.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...CONFIDENCE LOW CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES
(SEE PMDEPD). W CONUS UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS BY SUN BUT AGAIN BUILDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DURING THIS TRANSITION THE FA SHOULD BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPERATURE WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF HEIGHT
FALLS...WILL SIDE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS AND GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN BJI/GFK CLOSE TO ANY
CONVECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051515-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1002 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM 3 PM UNTIL 8 PM IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING A SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FOR LARGE HAIL AND
WIND REPORTS.

DK