Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 230507
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1207 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

NDC019-230517-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-070623T0530Z/
CAVALIER ND-
1207 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 1207 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF LANGDON...MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE. SO
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 4891 9849 4875 9861 4853 9806 4863 9790

$$
SPEICHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1119 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

.UPDATE...
LET SEVERE TSTM WATCH EXIPRE AT 11 PM. CURRENT TSTM COMPLEX THATM
MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA HAS OUTRACED THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH
REMAINS NORTH OF THE BORDER AND RUC INDICATES MUCH MORE STABLE
AIRMASS ITS RUNNING INTO FROM BDE-TVF-GFK. THEN WHY ARE STORMS
STILL GOING IS THE QUESTION. 00Z AND 03Z RUC INDICATES A VORT WITH
THIS COMPLEX MOVING THRU NW MN OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS A POCKET OF
850 MB WARM ADVECTION OVER NW MN SO PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT ABV SFC FOR CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT A FEW MORE
HOURS. ACTIVITY OUT WEST OF DVL TOWARD MINOT HAS DIMINISHED
FINALLY TOO SO WOULD EXPECT TREND OF STORMS IN NW MN TO WEAKEN A
BIT TOO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007/

UPDATE...
STORMS THAT FORMED IN THE BOTTINEAU AREA OF ND GENERALLY WEAKENING
WITH THE LONGEST LIVED SUPERCELL DROPPINGS MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AND VERY SLOWLY IN SPEED THRU MCHENRY COUNTY. OF MORE CONCERN IS
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. STORMS
NORTH OF THE BORDER HAVE INTENSIFIED IN PAST HOUR WITH SOME
OUTFLOW SOUTHEASTWARD HELPING TO FORM NEW STORMS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGHEST CAPES AND INSTABILITIES REMAIN IN
MANITOBA WITH TIGHT GRADIENT TO MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AS YOU
GET TO GFK-TVF. BECAUSE OF PSBL SVR CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BORDER
DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS DID COORD WITH SPC AND
ADDED A FEW COUNTIES TO SVR TSTM WATCH 445 VALID UNTIL 11 PM
INCLUDING RAMSEY...CAVALIER...PEMBINA...WALSH IN ND AND KITTSON
AND ROSEAU IN ND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007/

SHORT TERM...CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE N FA
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES...AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. 12Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...NAM BECOMES
SLOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 500MB PATTERN BY MON...THUS WILL
UTILIZE GFS FOR DETAILS.

TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
S CANADA LOCATED JUST N OF THE FA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WEAK SFC LOW
ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG TO CONTINUE EASTWARD PROPAGATION AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
ARE 65F-70F WITH MLCAPES 2000-3500 J/KG. EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS S CANADA AND MOVE INTO THE N FA THIS
EVENING. SPC DOES SHOW A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30KTS AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. WOULD IMAGINE A FEW SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY THIS
EVENING...BUT A WEAKENING TREND WITH LOSS OF SOLAR SINCE LOW LEVEL
JET IS NIL. THUNDER CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO NW MN PAST MIDNIGHT
BUT END BY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY AS DEEP TROUGH CRASHES PAC NW.
THIS BUILDS WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WITH ATMOSPHERE BECOMING CAPPED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 90F. WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SFC TEMPS SIMILAR. ALL PRECIP
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE FA DURING THIS TIME. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM MEAN TROUGH TO
AFFECT NW/N FA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST. SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS W FA BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
GIVEN EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (TUE THROUGH FRI)...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE 500MB PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A 500MB LOW MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUE...UNTIL 500MB RIDGE REBUILDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPS...SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST.

AVIATION...VFR SKY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

RIDDLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-231200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. ISOLATED REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

RIVERINE FLOODING IS EITHER FORECAST OR WILL CONTINUE IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AT PEMBINA AND POINTS SOUTH...AND ON TRIBUTARIES
OF THE RED RIVER IN MINNESOTA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO THE
LATEST HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEMIDJI
MINNESOTA TO COOPERSTOWN NORTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST UNSTABLE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON SUNDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TG/HOPPES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1040 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W LAKE BRONSON        48.73N 96.75W
06/22/2007                   KITTSON            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE MEASURING 8 TO 10 INCHES IN DIAMETER UNEARTHED
            4 MILES WEST OF LAKE BRONSON NEAR COUNTY ROAD 22.

&&

WBARRETT