Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 092146
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
446 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

MNC113-125-092215-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-070609T2215Z/
RED LAKE MN-PENNINGTON MN-
446 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL PENNINGTON AND NORTHERN RED LAKE COUNTIES...

AT 440 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THE STORM
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST. HILAIRE...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
THIEF RIVER FALLS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PLUMMER BY 500 PM CDT...
  9 MILES WEST OF ROLAND BY 515 PM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4807 9640 4790 9643 4789 9578 4808 9568

$$

WJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S COMBINED WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ABOUT 1000 J/KG CAPE AT MID AFTN. PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES TODAY
WITH 500 MB TEMPS ABOUT -16C ALONG THE BORDER AND 850 MB TEMPS OF
+12 TO +14C. ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO GENERATE HIGH
BASED CONVECTION. 300 MB JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH SOME WEAK FORCING RIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
THIS ALSO IN AREA OF WEAK COOL FRONT WHICH EXTENDS NR A KENORA TO
PEMBINA TO ROLLA LINE. THUS FAR NORTH WILL STAND THE BEST CHC FOR
TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE. LESSER COVERAGE THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED VCY-FAR-PKD SOUTHWARD.
FREEZING LEVEL FOR GFK PER NAM SOUNDING AT 10.5 KFT...COULD BE
SOME SMALL HAILERS BUT SUPERCELL INDICES VIA SPC WEB SITE INDICATE
WEAK PARAMATERS SO MULTI-CELL PULSE STORMS WOULD BE IT.

ONCE SUNSET ARRIVES ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR -SHRA IN NW MN ALONG BOUNDARY MAINLY.

ON SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. SURGE OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND BECOME ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA MONDAY.
KEPT LOW POP FOR ISOLD CONVECTION AT MAX HEATING MAINLY IN THE
NORTH PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND KEPT LOW POPS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY ALL AREAS. MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE BRANDON-WINNIPEG NORTHWARD WHERE BEST 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION IS PRESENT. ALSO SECOND AREA OF 850 MB FORCING NOTED IN
SE AND ECNTRL SD ON NOSE OF 40 KT JET SUNDAY OVERNIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON KEPT LOW POPS ALL AREAS. GFS DOES INDEED HIT AT BOTH AREAS
SEEING SOME CONVECTION AND DRIFTING THRU FCST AREA SUN NIGHT-MONDAY.

MON NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCING EAST INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY-TUES NIGHT. THESE PERIODS WILL SEE BEST CHC OF
CONVECTION AND HVY RAINFALL. PER HYDRO CONF CALL WITH RFC IDEA OF
2 INCH BASIN AVERAGE QPF PER HPC DAY 4-5 SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS
COVERED WELL IN GRIDDS AND HWO AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

DID UP TEMPS MOST PERIODS SUN-TUES AS VERY WARM AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND TOUCH 90
IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEW PTS WILL CLIMB AS WELL AS EVAPOTRANSPORATION
WILL BEGIN TO WORKS IT MAGIC DUE TO GREEN MOIST GROUND AND FIELD
CROPS EMERGING. MODEL DEW PTS OF 70-75 ARE TOO HIGH BUT MET/MAV
MOS IDEAS OF MID OR UPPER 60S SEEM VERY REASONABLE MON AFTN-TUES.

.LONG TERM...
GFS LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE LONG WAVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LONG WAVE PATTERN RETROGRADES
A BIT BY DAY 8. MODELS BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO HUDSON BAY BY EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. GFS AND NAM HAVE A
POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINED A MORE
NEUTRAL TILT AND MORE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK. THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF
ECMWF WAS PREFERRED. EXPECT A WET PERIOD FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME VFR CIGS WERE OVER NORTHWEST MN WITH BASES 7 THOUSAND FT AND
HIGHER. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE VALLEY AND LOW TO MID 70S IN THE NORTH
VALLEY. RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. GFS INDICATES WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BACKING FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND VEERING FLOW OVER ND AND MN. GFS CROSS
SECTION MAINTAIN A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

RIDDLE/HOPPES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
622 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-101130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
622 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO BEMIDJI. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS HOWEVER STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ALTHOUGH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VOELKER