Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 272308
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
608 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

MNC005-272318-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-070827T2315Z/
BECKER MN-
608 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BECKER COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 615 PM CDT...

AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROCHERT...OR 10 MILES EAST
OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE. SO
THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 615 PM CDT. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4686 9598 4672 9597 4673 9518 4693 9518

$$
SPEICHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

SURFACE LOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN PIR/HON WITH SE ORIENTED
WARM FRONT ALONG MN/IA BORDER. NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM LOW HAS
SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT SO STILL ALONG A BDE-BWP LINE. ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH MOST ORGANIZED BAND
ALONG 850MN CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM S CENTRAL ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
MODELS HANDLING THIS PRETTY WELL AND SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
AREA INTO THE EVENING. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED HAILERS HOWEVER OVERALL
NOT EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SEVERE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SO FAR HAS
LIMITED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN WARM SECTOR OVER SE FORECAST
AREA ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND
DELAYED HEATING CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA MAY BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIME AREA FOR
SEVERE BASED ON CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN
FORECAST. CLOUDS AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS FROM 45 TO 50 WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
WILL FOLLOW.

BOUNDARY CLEARS FA TO THE SE TOMORROW. REGION REMAINS IN BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDING ACROSS FA ON TUESDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. AIRMASS LOOKS STABLE SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS BUT JUST MENTION SHRA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL
PROFILE AND ANY SOLAR WILL HAVE A BIG PART IN TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

REGION TRANSISTIONS INTO NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN THROUGH REMAINDER OF
SHORT RANGE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FA. SHOULD SEE
SOME SOLAR AND THERMAL PROFILE RECOVERS LATER IN WORK WEEK HOWEVER
OVERALL LOOKING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG (FRI-MON)
LONG TERM WILL START OUT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH A SFC HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z GFS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS ND DRG
THE DAY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SAT AND SUN WILL
BRING TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES BACK UP...THEN SFC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
THROUGH CWA SUN AFTERNOON. THUS...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE AND
INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON THE MN SIDE FOR DAY 7.

.AVIATION
EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24
HOURS AS A QUASISTATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND. TEMPORARY IFR CONDS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ALONG BOUNDARY...MAINLY IMPACTING ROUTES INTO KFAR AND THE
KFAR/KBJI TAFS. EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...STRONGER STORMS ON THE MN SIDE...THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

VOELKER/SPEICHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-281200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
700 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY ROUGHLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM WASKISH MINNESOTA TO VALLEY CITY NORTH DAKOTA. THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM BAUDETTE MINNESOTA TO FORMAN NORTH
DAKOTA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL
MOVE NORTH OVER THE FRONT AND PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALSO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
450 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 S MENAHGA             46.72N 95.10W
08/27/2007  E0.88 INCH       WADENA             MN   PUBLIC

            COVERED THE LAWN.

&&

MEWENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
453 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             4 E HILLVIEW            46.68N 95.17W
08/27/2007  E1.00 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AMHOMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
504 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             6 WSW MENAHGA           46.72N 95.22W
08/27/2007  E1.00 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   PUBLIC

&&

MEWENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
508 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             6 W MENAHGA             46.75N 95.23W
08/27/2007  E1.00 INCH       BECKER             MN   PUBLIC

&&
...CORRECTED FOR DIRECTION AND COUNTY AFFECTED...

MEWENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
520 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             8 W CALLAWAY            46.98N 96.08W
08/27/2007  E0.75 INCH       BECKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AMHOMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
521 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             2 E FRAZEE              46.73N 95.66W
08/27/2007  E1.00 INCH       BECKER             MN   PUBLIC

&&

MEWENS