Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
539 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZFP/GRIDDS FOR TOR WATCH TIL 04Z FOR MUCH OF ERN ND AND NW
MN. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WELL DEFINED NR A LANGDON-DVL-NEW ROCKFORD
LINE...THEN SOUTHWEST TO JUST EAST OF BISMARCK. EAST OF BOUNDARY
AIRMASS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG AS AIRMASS
HAS HEATED OUT TO THE UPPER 80S AND DEW PTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CIN VALUES STILL THERE BUT WEAKENING.
BEST UPPER SUPPORT ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND WOULD EXPECT BEST CHC
FOR SVR IN NRN VALLEY WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND. DEVELOPMENT POISED TO
TAKE PLACE 23Z-00Z TIME FRAME IT APPEARS. HOW ORGANIZED AND
WIDESPREAD SVR IS AND WHAT FORM (TORNADIC/HAIL/WIND THREAT)
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOW LEVEL 850 MB JET FOCUSES MORE OVER ERN MN
OVERNIGHT WITH LEFT QUAD IN WCNTRL AND SE ND. SO WOULD THINK
ORGANIZATION INTO A COMPLEX IS PSBL OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO SE
ND/WCNTRL MN. AS FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL....LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT THE
BEST....AS SFC WINDS SOUTHERLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC. PREFER TO SEE A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND FOR BEST POTENTIAL...BUT
SUCH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD ARGUE FOR SUPERCELLS.PER
SPC LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS VERY HIGH DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES 700-500 MB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007/

SHORT TERM (SUN NIGHT - WED)... FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AS OF 19Z... THE COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE...EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MINOT TO THE DICKINSON AREA.

THERE IS STILL GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF MY CWA. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS STILL CAPPED.
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION...MAINLY THE NORTHERN VALLEY REGION...18Z
RUC IS PROGGING BY 00Z A 40KT TO 50KT LLJ WITH STRONG WAA JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER. 19Z VIS SATELLITE IS SHOWING CU START TO POP
IN THIS REGION...WHICH IS JUST EAST OF A QUITE STRONG SHOWALTERS
GRADIENT...WITH VALUES IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AROUND NEG 6 BY 00Z.
THUS...THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERE CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL AS
INDICATED WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK (15% CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL).

FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z...WHILE
A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH EASTWARD OVER SD TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A BAND OF DECENT
H700 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FORM ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SW TO THE
NE BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH A VORT MAX PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS...BEST QPF WILL BE IN THE EAST MONDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER
THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CNTRL MN. INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE EAST
PM MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SFC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE CWA
TOMORROW EVENING...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS.

LONG TERM (THU - SAT)...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN RAISING HEIGHTS AS FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER FA.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER
LOW END POPS SEEM REASONABLE AS BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST
INTO REGION FOR PORTION OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THICKNESS AND
THERMAL VALUES TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER FAR NW-N FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

RIDDLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-271130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM VALLEY CITY NORTH DAKOTA TO BEMIDJI MINNESOTA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE
FROM ROSEAU MINNESOTA TO VALLEY CITY NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
708 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             4 S TOLNA               47.77N 98.44W
08/26/2007  E0.75 INCH       NELSON             ND   PUBLIC

&&

AMHOMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
720 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             EDINBURG                48.50N 97.86W
08/26/2007  E1.75 INCH       WALSH              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

AMHOMANN