Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Grand Forks, ND

August 13, 2007Norman County, Polk County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 13, 2007, 4:27 PM CDT for Norman County, Polk County, Minnesota. It was in force for 63 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 13, 2007, 4:27 PM CDT (21:27 UTC)
Expired: Aug 13, 2007, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 63 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Norman County, MN, Polk County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 13, 2:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 13, 2:28 PM CDT, 1 hour 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 13, 2:28 PM CDT, 1 hour 59 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
228 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAJOR SHORT TERM
ISSUE...THEREFORE WILL KEEP DISCUSSION SHORT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...SO WILL FOLLOW
MORE OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...TSTMS THAT INITIALLY FIRED IN THE RUGBY AREA AND TRACKED
DOWN TOWARD NORTHERN BARNES COUNTY HAVE SINCE MOVED TOWARD KFAR
AND THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL MN (AND DIED OFF). SINCE THEN...ANOTHER
COMPLEX IS TAKING OFF NORTHEAST OF KDVL...AND IT IS RIDING TO THE
EAST-SE NOW TOO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY STILL LOOKS ANCHORED ABOVE
THE SFC. MODELS SHOW A STRONG 850MB DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN ND WITH A SHARP SHOWALTER GRADIENT TOO. OTHERWISE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET ARCHING INTO THIS AREA TOO
PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THESE PARAMETERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SEVERE TSTM MENTION
IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING.

TUE-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FOR TUE WHILE MODELS SHOW
SOME PCPN POTENTIAL ON TUE NIGHT/WED. THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION
IN THE RETURN FLOW AND SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING ANY PCPN FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS REEVALUATE. THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THRU LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THIS TIME. QUICK
MOVING SYSTEMS COMING THRU...WITH NEXT SFC HIGH DROPPING DOWN FOR
THU.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN HUDSON
BAY...PUTTING THE CWA MAINLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
CWA...BRINGING NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS.  GENERALLY TENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION
AS IT HAS BEEN BETTER AT PICKING UP WAVES COMING ACROSS THE RIDGE
OVER THE LAST WEEK. THE 12Z GFS HAS A SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER MONTANA.
THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...CAUSING SFC WINDS
TO SWITCH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. AT 18Z...MAIN BOUNDARY WAS IN WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL OUT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ON THE MINNESOTA
SIDE AFTER 19Z. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (AS INDICATED ON CURRENT RADAR).
TWB ROUTES FROM DULUTH/MINNEAPOLIS TO FARGO WILL SEE THE MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM AREAS...CIGS HAVE BEEN DROPPING TO MVFR IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS...AND AVIATORS CAN EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 ON THE NORTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE CWA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GODON/SPEICHER

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 13, 6:07 AM CDT, 10 hours 20 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 13, 3:31 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 13, 3:45 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 13, 3:46 PM CDT, 41 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 13, 3:54 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 13, 4:00 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 13, 4:07 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 13, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Polk	41 min
Aug 13, 6:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clearwater	44 min
Aug 13, 6:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Hubbard	37 min
Aug 13, 6:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Wadena	47 min
Aug 13, 6:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	67 min
Aug 13, 6:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clearwater	32 min
Aug 13, 9:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson	65 min
Aug 13, 10:33 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Eddy	57 min
Aug 13, 11:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Griggs	67 min
Aug 13, 12:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass	50 min
Aug 13, 12:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Towner	36 min
Aug 13, 1:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Ramsey	59 min
Aug 13, 1:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Nelson, Walsh	61 min
Aug 13, 2:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ramsey	30 min
Aug 13, 2:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Walsh	57 min
Aug 13, 3:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	61 min
Aug 13, 3:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Steele, Traill	65 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.