Severe Thunderstorm Warning 394, NWS Atlanta, GA

000 
WWUS52 KFFC 232047
SVSFFC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
447 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

GAC057-232100-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0394.000000T0000Z-070823T2100Z/
CHEROKEE GA-
447 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST 
NORTHWEST OF WALESKA...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

LAT...LON 3436 8448 3441 8464 3441 8466 3423 8464

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
416 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR BHM...WILL DRIFT
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST...THEN START A NEWRD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
TN/SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...ALL THE WHILE WEAKENING. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT WEST AND BE CENTERED OVER THE ARLKATEX
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN ELONGATED ALL THE WAY FROM TX
INTO THE SE. AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...A
WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SE
U.S. COAST...AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE SW INTO THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...THE WESTERLIES ARE STRENGTHENING WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS NOW SUPPORTING A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST.  AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS WEST OF THE
AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT TO PENETRATE INTO THE SE U.S. FOR SAT-SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATE
SAT - SUN APPEARING TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FROM N-S. BEYOND
THAT...THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT GA REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERLY PERIPHERY...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SHORT WAVES AND COLD POOLS ALOFT TO DRIFT S
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...BRINGING AN EASTERLY FLOW
TO THE REGION NOW...WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS BERMUDA HIGH TAKES
OVER AGAIN BY FRI...BRINGING SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SW.

THE MCS...WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA LAST NIGHT...WAS WELL DEPICTED BY GFS ON 12Z RUN
YESTERDAY. CURRENT GFS HAS THIS CONTINUING TO DRIFT WSW THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO FRI...CENTERED NEAR MSY BY TONIGHT. NAM DOES NOT
INITIALIZE WELL AT ALL AND DOES NOT SEE MCS. IN ADDITION...IT
TRIES TO BRING THE AREA UNDER THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INSTEAD OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
U.S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ECMWF AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF MCS SYSTEM SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH LI
AROUND -7 AND CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG....K INDEX
45...ETC...AND UPSLOPE FLOW PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE IN THE N MOUNTAINS...AND
POSSIBLY NW GA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THAT AREA IS CLOSER TO LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER.

HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT WEST WITH THE UPPER HIGH AND
HOPEFULLY WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST OF THE 100S...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN BORDER.

FOR FRI...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE WEST AND
THE WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE SE SECTIONS. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION
ANYWHERE. GIVEN PATTERN...IT SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNAL. FOR SAT-
SUN...BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. BEST CHANCES FOR SAT SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTH...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION ANYWHERE BECAUSE OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR
SUN...CHANCE POPS WARRANTED EVERYWHERE AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SOUTH AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MON-WED...CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DIURNAL AND MORE SCATTERED AS
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE UPPER HIGH...ALBEIT WEAKER...DRIFTS
BACK OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
CWA MON-TUE. BY WED...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND FRONT DRIFT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
AGAIN. CHANCE POPS APPEAR WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THU OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SUPPORTED SYNOPTICALLY. BOTH THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND
THE ONE LATE NEXT WEEK ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY LARGE AREAS OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TRAJECTORY OF THIS
WILL BE EASTWARD TOWARD THE NE U.S. IT IS CLEAR THAT THE TREND
TOWARD A FALL PATTERN IS BEGINNING THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOPEFULLY...WE HAVE JUST ABOUT SEEN THE LAST OF THE 100 DAYS.
COULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS REACHING 100 AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MAX TEMPS...ALTHOUGH REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL...SHOULD BE DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  95  71  96  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         75  95  74  96  74 /  20  20  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     66  90  65  88  66 /  30  20  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    72  96  71  97  70 /  30  20  20  20  30
COLUMBUS        76  96  75  94  76 /  20  30  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     74  94  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  20  20
MACON           72  94  71  95  74 /  20  30  20  20  20
ROME            72 100  71  98  70 /  30  20  20  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  70  93  69  95  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
VIDALIA         75  93  74  94  76 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
218 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241215-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
218 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD AND
BECOME CENTERED OVER ALABAMA TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO EAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MAINLY BEFORE 10 PM.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO EAST GEORGIA
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LIFTED INDICES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE -2 TO -4 RANGE WITH CAPES INCREASING INTO THE
1500 TO 2500 RANGE...WHILE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW ARE AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

GAZ007-232000-
325 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
GILMER COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ROY...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
GILMER COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE PISGAH...MARION...ROY AND CARTECAY. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

GAZ015-232030-
345 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS IN
LUMPKIN COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTER SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LUMPKIN COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE PORTER SPRINGS...DAHLONEGA...GARLAND AND AURARIA. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS UP TO 57 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF PENNIES...OR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
357 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

GAZ007-232030-
357 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS IN
GILMER COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 352 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CARTECAY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
GILMER COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE ROY...CARTECAY AND TALONA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS UP TO 57 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF PENNIES...OR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
410 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

GAZ016-232045-
410 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CLEVELAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITE COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE UNICOI STATE PARK...ROBERTSTOWN...NACOOCHEE...HELEN...
CLEVELAND AND LEAF. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
418 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

GAZ013-232045-
418 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HALF INCH SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS IN PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BLAINE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HALF INCH SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS PICKENS COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE WHITESTONE...HINTON...BLAINE AND
TALKING ROCK. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
424 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

GAZ015-232100-
424 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HALF INCH SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS IN LUMPKIN COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NIMBLEWILL...MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HALF INCH SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS LUMPKIN COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NIMBLEWILL AND AURARIA. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

16