Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
331 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE MIX. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE BUILDING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES. THIS BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT
TERM AS IT STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS RIDGE BRINGING IN
GOOD GULF MOISTURE INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BUT IT KEEP THIS GOOD
MOISTURE JUST TO THE WEST OF GA THROUGH WED/THU. THERE IS STILL A
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM BUT
WITH THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ONLY SE ISOLATED SHOWERS TUE
THROUGH THU. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM AFTERNOON HI
TEMPS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 90S EXPECTED THE NE GA MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A CHANGE IS COMING IN THE EXTENDED AS THE MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER PATTERN SHIFTING. THE OVER ALL PATTERN WE HAVE NOW OVER THE
U.S. BEGINS AMPLIFYING WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
WESTERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  BY
FRI/SAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HELPS
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEAR TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP
BY FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS SETTLES
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A NEW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH BEGINNING SUN. AM A LITTLE LEARY ABOUT THIS AS THE
MODELS ARE USUALLY A BIT TOO FAST WITH MOVING FRONTS COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE STATE THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER IN
THE EXTENDED BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  92  66  90  68 /  20  20  20  20  10
ATLANTA         72  90  69  89  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  86  62  86  63 /  20  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  92  66  90  66 /  20  30  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        72  93  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     69  90  68  88  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
MACON           69  94  69  94  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
ROME            67  93  68  94  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  65  90  66  89  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
VIDALIA         73  92  70  89  71 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261045-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. DEWPOINTS ARE
INCREASING OVER THE STATE...AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING IN MORE
MOISTURE.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS...AND HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD POOL OF AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES WILL BE AROUND 1500 WITH LIFTED INDICES
MINUS FOUR TO MINUS SIX. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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