Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
626 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...INTO AN AREA OF ENHANCED
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000 AND LIFTED INDICES OF
-4 TO -6. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THESE
STORMS SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD AS THEY TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM...WITH THE MAIN THREATS HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST GEORGIA BEGINNING 00Z
TONIGHT...TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 00Z THURSDAY.
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES NOTED IN NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH SETS UP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MOIST...WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH GEORGIA SINKS SOUTHWARD
TO NORTH FLORIDA BY TOMORROW MORNING SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY...AND WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL KEEP ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE ON HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF. ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS TO WARRANT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. EXTENDED PERIOD TEMPERATURES SHOWING A WARM
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT
UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING ARE THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ATL AREA...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION THUNDER THROUGH NO LATER
THAN 02Z. MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT OVER NE GA/UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. FEEL AHN WILL
BE IN FOR A ROUGH EVENING WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN TSRA...AS NAM AND RUC ARE INDICATING A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NEAR THE COLD POOL TONIGHT OVER EAST GEORGIA.
MCN MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM ROUGHLY 04 TO 08Z. THE
DISTANCE OF CSG FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIKELY KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THERE.

FOR TOMORROW...SEE NO NEED TO GO AGAINST NAM AND PERSISTENCE...AS
WEAK EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER MORNING OF IFR
CIGS BETWEEN 005 AND 010 FEET. WILL START THE CIGS AT 09Z AND CARRY
THROUGH 14Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIMILAR INSTABILITIES TO THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA...SO WILL INTRODUCE VCTS TO CSG AND MCN TAFS AFTER 20Z...BUT
WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF ATL AND AHN.

MG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  85  63  83  64 /  50  20  20  40  20
ATLANTA         67  86  68  84  64 /  30  10  10  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     57  84  59  76  58 /  30  20  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    62  87  62  85  63 /  30  10  10  30  20
COLUMBUS        70  88  67  87  66 /  30  10   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     63  85  65  81  64 /  40  20  20  40  20
MACON           65  89  63  87  65 /  50  10  10  30  20
ROME            61  91  63  88  64 /  30  10  10  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  60  86  60  84  63 /  30  10  10  30  20
VIDALIA         67  86  64  85  65 /  50  20  10  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

50/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
431 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131030-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
431 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ROTATING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SPREADS MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
WITH THE THE HEATING OF THE DAY...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH CAPES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 RANGE AND
LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN MINUS 2 AND MINUS 5. IN ADDITION...MODERATE
FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE SOUTH...KEEPING A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

GAZ043-044-122215-
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
DOUGLAS AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 536 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SWEETWATER CREEK STATE PARK...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL ARE
LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS DOUGLAS AND FULTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
SWEETWATER CREEK STATE PARK...CHAPEL HILL...MIDWAY AND LITHIA
SPRINGS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
546 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             CUMMING                 34.21N 84.14W
06/12/2007  E1.00 INCH       FORSYTH            GA   PUBLIC

0502 PM     HAIL             1 S MARIETTA            33.94N 84.54W
06/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       COBB               GA   PUBLIC

0503 PM     HAIL             MARIETTA                33.95N 84.54W
06/12/2007  E0.88 INCH       COBB               GA   PUBLIC

0505 PM     HAIL             MARIETTA                33.95N 84.54W
06/12/2007  E0.88 INCH       COBB               GA   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED FROM A LOCATION OFF OF MANSON
            AVENUE.

0510 PM     HAIL             MARIETTA                33.95N 84.54W
06/12/2007  E1.00 INCH       COBB               GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED FROM A LOCATION OFF OF POWDER
            SPRINGS ROAD.

0510 PM     HAIL             MARIETTA                33.95N 84.54W
06/12/2007  E0.88 INCH       COBB               GA   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED FROM A LOCATION OFF OF COOPER
            LAKE ROAD.

&&

GRIFFITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
552 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

GAZ027-122215-
552 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS IN
MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 552 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTH OF POCATALIGO...AND MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS MAINLY NORTH MADISON
COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE PHILLIPS...POCATALIGO AND ILA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

GAZ024-122245-
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS IN
BANKS COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 616 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLLINGSWORTH...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS BANKS COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
ALTO...HOLLINGSWORTH AND HOMER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
626 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             COMMERCE                34.21N 83.46W
06/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            GA   PUBLIC

            DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT A LOCATION OFF OF
            HOODS MILL ROAD.

0500 PM     FLOOD            ACWORTH                 34.06N 84.68W
06/12/2007                   COBB               GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED MINOR STREET FLOODING ON WINDY HILL ROAD
            NEAR I-75 ENTRANCE RAMPS.

0532 PM     HAIL             3 ESE SILVER CITY       34.32N 84.07W
06/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       FORSYTH            GA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL ALONG FORSYTH-DAWSON COUNTY
            LINE ON GA 400.

0538 PM     HAIL             2 NE CUMMING            34.23N 84.11W
06/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       FORSYTH            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED ALONG HWY 53.

0545 PM     LIGHTNING        CUMMING                 34.21N 84.14W
06/12/2007                   FORSYTH            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIGHTNING STRUCK HOUSE ON WENHAM COURT. NO DAMAGE OR
            INJURIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

0547 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NE CUMMING              34.21N 84.14W
06/12/2007                   FORSYTH            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON WALDRUFF ROAD.

&&

GRIFFITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
634 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             DOUGHERTY               34.38N 84.07W
06/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       DAWSON             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED ALONG HWY 53 NEAR
            DOUGHERTY.

&&

GRIFFITH