Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. . .UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
525 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...A CLUE THAT COLDER
AIR ALOFT IS STARTING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. MODELS SHOW
UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH ITS -10C 500 MB AIR (SIMILAR TO
WHAT IS OVER SC NOW) WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z TODAY...OVER TOP A MOISTENING SURFACE LAYER
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...PRIMARILY COURTESY OF APPROACHING MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM VIGOR ACROSS MUCH OF
GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-85 BY THIS
AFTERNOON LASTING WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE EACH DAY UNTIL MOVING OVER GEORGIA BY
WEDNESDAY. ALSO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE GULF COAST ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY OF MOBILE ALABAMA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...KEEPING MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...BUT WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY AS THAT COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE SOME AFFECT ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO SEND MID AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE LESS LATE IN THE WEEK CONSIDERING THAT A RATHER ANEMIC LOOKING
SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO
GEORGIA. RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES IN BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH ALABAMA WITH ITS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF
GA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING ABOUT LOWER CLOUDS REDUCE VISIBILITY
INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. VSBYS TO SHOULD RECOVER
AFTER SUNRISE. WIND TO REMAIN EASTERLY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  67  84  63  86 /  50  40  40  30  30
ATLANTA         90  69  86  66  83 /  40  40  30  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     80  62  80  59  81 /  50  40  40  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    88  64  85  61  85 /  40  40  30  20  20
COLUMBUS        96  73  92  69  89 /  20  30  40  20  20
GAINESVILLE     88  67  83  63  83 /  50  40  40  30  30
MACON           94  70  89  66  87 /  30  50  50  30  40
ROME            89  65  88  63  89 /  40  40  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  90  66  85  65  84 /  40  40  30  30  20
VIDALIA         94  73  87  66  83 /  30  50  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111545-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
631 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING
WIND.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO KICK
OFF THE LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO HELP STRENGTHEN SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE CAPE WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 700 IN WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO OVER 1800 IN CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE LIFTED
INDEX WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EACH DAY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
220 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

GAZ074-111845-
220 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 217 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SANDERSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE SANDERSVILLE...TENNILLE...RIDDLEVILLE AND
HARRISON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.