Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 141618
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1116 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

TXC149-141700-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-070314T1700Z/
FAYETTE TX-
1116 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
FAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 1112 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST AT 20 
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WARDA AND ROUND TOP.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2999 9715 2981 9716 2981 9660 3014 9660

$$

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 141648
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1146 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

TXC149-141700-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-070314T1700Z/
FAYETTE TX-
1146 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FAYETTE COUNTY WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY CONTINUES TO 
MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STORM AT 1145 AM...THE STORM WAS LOCATED 
OVER ROUND TOP. BY NOON...THE STORM WILL HAVE MOVED INTO WASHINGTON 
COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT 
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2999 9715 2981 9716 2981 9660 3014 9660

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1042 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 62 FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALREADY GENERATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HEATING COULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SPAWNING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007/

AVIATION...
A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY EXPECT THESE TO MISS MOST OF THE
TAF AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN ERRATIC VSBY AND CIG CHANGES WITH MOST AERAS SEEING IFR
CIGS. EXPECT A BRIEF DIP INTO LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEFORE THE
SUN AND MIXING BREAKS UP THE INVERSION BY 15Z. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD FOCUS EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES BY AROUND 19Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT A MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF VLIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND FINALLY
MOVING EAST. THE FOCUS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
OUR AREA...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING OVERHEAD AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH
HEATING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN-HALF OF OUR AREA...BUT
WILL NOT PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE FASTER MOVEMENT
(40-45KTS OF WESTERLY STEERING FLOW) AND LOWER PWATS. SEVERAL OF
OUR RIVERS ARE IN...OR FORECAST TO GO IN...MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD
DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 72H.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE WIDESPREAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL FOG
SCENARIO PLAYS-OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN-HALF OF OUR
AREA. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

WARMER TEMPS FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
SUPPLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GULF AIRMASS TO HOLD THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.

00Z GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE IN THE BALLPARK...BUT OUR MAX TEMP
FORECAST IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS VALUES FOR WED AND THU GIVEN
UNMODELED EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM VERY WET SURFACES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  57  82  56  67 /  60  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  53  81  56  67 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  59  85  62  73 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  59  82  61  71 /  40  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

08/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
553 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-151100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
553 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH PRIMARY
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPECT AMOUNTS LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

LATE TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.