Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
734 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 UNTIL 07Z (2 AM
CDT). PLEASE REFER TO SATWCNEWX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/

UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA UNTIL 7 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SATFFAEWX PRODUCT FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE MCS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS SHORTLY.
MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...BUT THE SUB-
SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT
AND ANTICIPATED SCENARIO. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME COLD-AIR POOLING IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...BUT WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES ALONE AS THIS
WILL BE A TEMPORARY FEATURE. PLEASE REMAIN ALERT TO THE ONGOING
WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 342 UNTIL
07Z (2 AM CDT). FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH
PRODUCT, SATWCNEWX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/

AVIATION...
A VERY ACTIVE NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU SOUTH TX. SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX AND THE HILL COUNTRY WILL BE UNDER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES TONIGHT. WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THE CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/

DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF THREE IMPULSES WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEVERAL OLD BOUNDARIES
WILL ACT TO FOCUS THE ENERGY OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NORTH TEXAS. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR
CWA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BE SEVERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FORECASTING CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000
J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS. WE EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING TO BE WIDESPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT ITSELF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SECOND AND THIRD SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL
BRING A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH OF
THESE SYSTEMS. AT THIS TIME THE TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT NOT NECESSARILY FOR SEVERE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND THE
WEATHER WILL TURN BENIGN. NO CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  92  70  92  70 /  70  20  20  30  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  91  68  91  68 /  60  20  20  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  91  73  94  72 /  50  20  30  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  91  72  89  72 /  50  20  20  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

25/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-041045-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN TEXAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

TONIGHTS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER CLUSTER OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
848 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 E FREDERICKSBURG      30.27N 98.74W
06/03/2007  E60 MPH          GILLESPIE          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUST IN STONEWALL.

0842 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BASTROP                 30.11N 97.31W
06/03/2007                   BASTROP            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES.

0830 PM     HAIL             BASTROP                 30.11N 97.31W
06/03/2007  M1.00 INCH       BASTROP            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN AND STREET FLOODING.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
923 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     INGRAM                  30.08N 99.24W
06/03/2007  E70 MPH          KERR               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     INGRAM                  30.08N 99.24W
06/03/2007                   KERR               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BETWEEN INGRAM AND HUNT ON
            HIGHWAY 39.

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KERRVILLE               30.04N 99.14W
06/03/2007                   KERR               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BETWEEN KERRVILLE AND HARPER
            ON HIGHWAY 783.

0905 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 WNW BASTROP          30.17N 97.46W
06/03/2007  E60 MPH          BASTROP            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUST AT HYZTTE RESORT.

&&

DC