Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 220423
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1123 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

TXC127-323-220445-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0203.000000T0000Z-070522T0445Z/
MAVERICK TX-DIMMIT TX-
1123 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR DIMMIT AND MAVERICK COUNTIES...

AT 1118 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EL INDIO...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL DIMMIT COUNTY AT 1140 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2858 10033 2840 10036 2821 10000 2856 9960

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1021 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

.UPDATE...
AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW AN MCS MOVING EAST
BETWEEN DEL RIO AND SONORA WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM
EAGLE PASS TO ABOUT 50 MILES INTO MEXICO AND IN THE LLANO, BURNET,
AND LAMPASAS AREAS. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW SUGGEST MCS AND
THE RIO GRANDE CLUSTER WILL BE SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT,
WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. OTHERWISE, ONGOING FORECASTS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007/

AVIATION...
THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE AREA OF TS WEST OF DRT. THESE
STORMS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER...BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTNING AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AT DRT
UNTIL AROUND 04Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TS AT AUS AND HYI LATER
TONIGHT BETWEEN 07 AND O9Z. OTHERWISE CIGS AT THE I-35 AIRPORTS
WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 09Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007/

DISCUSSION...
LATE AFTERNOON HEATING, MID LEVEL COOLING AND THE WEST TEXAS DRY
LINE WILL BE THE BREEDING GROUNDS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, PER SPC DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE, THE SPRING
TRANSITION CONTINUES. THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO SEND LONG WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE U.S. BUT THEY ARE NOT REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
BEFORE. ALSO THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO NUDGE WESTWARD INTO
TEXAS, RESULTING IN A SWITCH FROM CONTINENTAL AIR TO TROPICAL AIR.
THE PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED WEAK COLD FRONT DUE TO ENTER THE HILL
COUNTRY THURSDAY IS NOW NOT GOING TO MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO HAVE A GOOD HOLD ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S. WITH ATMOSPHERIC WINDS FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD SEND A TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NOCTURNAL AND SEABREEZE
SHOWERS. THE TROPICAL TAP SHUTS OFF SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
RETURNING TO NORMAL LEVELS OF NEAR 90. HOWEVER, IF THE TROPICAL
TAP DOES NOT DEVELOP, CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED AND
TEMPS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

POP-WISE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE PICTURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO MINOR DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN A SWITCH TO TROPICAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF LATER IN THE WEEK. BY
WEEKS END, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY
LOWERING P.W.S AND LACK OF SURFACE BASED FOCUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  86  71  88  70 /  40  30  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  71  87  70 /  40  30  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  88  72  91  72 /  80  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  86  71  87  70 /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-221200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
327 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT...FOR
VAL VERDE...EDWARDS AND KINNEY COUNTIES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARDS THE RIO
GRANDE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
756 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

TXZ183-220200-
VAL VERDE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...DEL RIO
756 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN VAL VERDE BY
8 PM. THIS LINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 25 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE LINE ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THERE WILL ALSO BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE AROUND ONE INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS A LINE FROM PANDALE TO LANGTRY BY
8:30 PM AND THEN JUNO TO COMSTOCK BY 9 PM.