River Flood Warning 90, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS44 KEWX 180923
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
423 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED 
 A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE... 

  PECOS RIVER 
  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CHANGE RIVER FORECAST LEVELS.


TXC465-181723-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-070819T0501Z/
/PDAT2.3.ER.070818T0602Z.070818T0845Z.070818T1701Z.NO/
423 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE PECOS RIVER AT PANDALE CROSSING.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 04AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...14.6 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* BANKFULL STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* FORECAST:  RISE TO AROUND 15.3 FEET THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOODING MAKES LOW WATER CROSSINGS ALONG THE 
  PECOS RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES POTENTIALLY DEADLY.  THE FLOOD WAVE MOVING 
  DOWNSTREAM CAUSES RAPID RISES DANGEROUS TO CAMPERS ON THE LOW BANKS BELOW 
  SHEFFIELD TO AMISTAD RESERVOIR.  AUTOS AND GEAR CAN BE SWEPT DOWNSTREAM.

$$

&&


BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS:


                    BF  FLD   OBSERVED            FORECAST 6AM LST
LOCATION           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED
  PANDALE CROSSIN    5    7   14.6   SAT 04 AM  15.3   2.5   2.3   2.3   2.3

$$

000 
WGUS84 KEWX 181528
FLSEWX
TXC465-182328-

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE 

  PECOS RIVER...
  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CHANGE RIVER FORECAST LEVELS.


TXC465-181558-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-070819T0501Z/
/PDAT2.3.ER.070818T0602Z.070818T0845Z.070818T1143Z.NO/
1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR 
  THE PECOS RIVER AT PANDALE CROSSING.
* AT 10AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...4.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* BANKFULL STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* FORECAST:  CRESTED...BELOW BANKFULL STAGE NOW.

$$

&&


BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):
                    BF  FLD   OBSERVED            FORECAST 6AM LST (FT)
LOCATION           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU
  PANDALE CROSSIN    5    7    4.6   SAT 10 AM   2.4   2.4   2.4   2.4   2.4


BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):
                    BF  FLD   OBSERVED            FORECAST 6AM LST (M)
LOCATION           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU
  PANDALE CROSSIN    2    2    1.4   SAT 10 AM   0.7   0.7   0.7   0.7   0.7



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS FORECAST ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO
VFR BETWEEN 15-16Z SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT
KDRT BETWEEN 11-15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
MODERATE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007/

UPDATE...
SOME EARLY EVENING RUN-OFF PROBLEMS COULD OCCUR OVER VAL VERDE AND
NWRN EDWARDS COUNTIES OTHERWISE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS
DECREASED. THE FFA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE MENTIONED THRU TONIGHT FOR EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. WRN EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES HAVE NOT RECEIVED
MUCH RAIN UP TO THIS POINT, BUT COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED FLOODING
PROBLEMS THIS EVENING. ACROSS MOST AREAS, EXPECT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN TO DROP TO ALMOST NIL LATE THIS EVENING, BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN SLIGHTLY AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND SHOULD REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOW A HINT OF DIFFLUENCE. THUS MOST
OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MORNING WHEN DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL TAKE HOLD. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DRIFT OF
ERIN, AS THE GFS AND THE LATE AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS PART
OF ERIN COULD DROP SOUTHWARD AND BACK INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
LATER THIS WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007/

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 06Z...WHEN
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDRT EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AROUND 15Z SATURDAY WITH A FEW MID DAY AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24H.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN CROCKETT COUNTY MOVING NORTHWARD. CONVECTION OVER THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH CORE RAINS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CWFA NEAR THE
CENTER OF ERIN OVERNIGHT. THUS WE WILL LET THE FFA EXPIRE AT 7 PM
CDT. RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER CWFA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TROPICAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF. THIS TROF IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVING
WESTWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

HURRICANE DEAN IS NOW A CAT 3 STORM. IT IS FCST TO BE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY STRIKE SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IF THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE COMES ASHORE AROUND CORPUS CHRISTI OUR
CWFA WILL BE FAVORED RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
OUR FCST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
CONSERVITINE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  92  76  92  74 /  20  40  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  91  74  91  73 /  20  40  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  91  76  91  75 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

18/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-181115-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
701 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
VAL VERDE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.