River Flood Warning 61, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS84 KEWX 280114
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
814 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
  MEDINA RIVER AND THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER. 
  
 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
 ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CHANGE THESE RIVER FORECAST LEVELS.


TXC029-280914-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-070729T1300Z/
/SAAT2.1.ER.070727T1245Z.070727T1930Z.070729T0100Z.NO/
814 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MEDINA RIVER AT US 281 SOUTH.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:15 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER REACHED NEAR 21.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW SLOWLY
  FALLING. THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY 
  EVENING AND THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES THE FM 1937 BRIDGE 
  FLOOR.

$$

TXC029-493-280914-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-070729T1848Z/
/ELMT2.2.ER.070724T1411Z.070726T0800Z.070729T0648Z.NO/
814 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER NEAR ELMENDORF.
* UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 37.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 35 FEET THROUGH
  SATURDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SUNDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 39.0 FEET...MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING DAMAGES CROPS AND FLOODS 
  PASTURELAND BELOW SAN ANTONIO TO BELOW FLORESVILLE.  SECONDARY ROADS AND LOW 
  BRIDGES...IRRIGATION PUMPS...OIL FIELD PUMP JACKS AND TANK BATTERIES FLOOD.  
  LIVESTOCK ARE CUT OFF IN LOW AREAS.

$$

TXC255-280914-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-070730T1200Z/
/FACT2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.070727T2115Z.070730T0000Z.NO/
814 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER NEAR FALLS CITY.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  4:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED NEAR 16.5 FFET THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NOW BEGIN TO 
  SLOWLY FALL. IT WILL DROP BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGES IRRIGATION PUMPS...OIL 
  FIELD PUMP JACKS AND TANK BATTERIES AND EQUIPMENT.  LIVESTOCK IN FLOOD PRONE 
  AREAS ARE CUT OFF AND POTENTIALLY DROWNED.  THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO 
  CROP LANDS IN SEASON.

$$

&&


BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS:
                    BF  FLD   OBSERVED            FORECAST 6AM LST
LOCATION           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED
  US 281 SOUTH      16   20   20.2   FRI 07 PM  18.8  15.8  13.4  11.3      
  ELMENDORF         33   35   37.1   FRI 07 PM  33.7  26.2  23.8  21.9      
  FALLS CITY         6   12   16.5   FRI 04 PM  12.7  11.2   7.3   5.6      

$$

000 
WGUS84 KEWX 281322
FLSEWX
TXC029-493-282122-

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
822 AM CDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE 

  MEDINA RIVER...SAN ANTONIO RIVER...
  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CHANGE RIVER FORECAST LEVELS.


TXC029-281352-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-070729T1300Z/
/SAAT2.1.ER.070727T1245Z.070727T1930Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
822 AM CDT SAT JUL 28 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR 
  THE MEDINA RIVER AT US 281 SOUTH. 
* AT 07AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...15.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* BANKFULL STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST:  BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND BANKFULL STAGE NOW.  

$$

TXC029-493-281352-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-070729T1848Z/
/ELMT2.2.ER.070724T1411Z.070726T0800Z.070728T1107Z.NO/
822 AM CDT SAT JUL 28 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR 
  THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER NEAR ELMENDORF.
* AT 07AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...34.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* BANKFULL STAGE IS 33.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.
* FORECAST:  BELOW FLOOD STAGE NOW...FALL BELOW BANKFULL STAGE
  THIS MORNING.   

$$

&&


BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS:
                    BF  FLD   OBSERVED            FORECAST 6AM LST
LOCATION           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU
  US 281 SOUTH      16   20   15.7   SAT 07 AM  12.8  11.3  10.8  10.4  10.1
  ELMENDORF         33   35   34.4   SAT 07 AM  25.8  22.7  22.2  21.8  21.5

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED OVER THE
AUS AND HYI TERMINALS. BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE EAST AND
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY WHILE LIFTING CIGS ABOVE 1000 FT FOR ALL
AREAS BY 15Z. SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME 800
FT CEILINGS AT ANY TIME OF DAY. RADAR TRENDS AGREE WITH NAM MODEL
PROJECTIONS TO KEEP MORE PESSIMISTIC WEATHER OVER THE AUS AREA
WHEN COMPARED TO THE SAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PLAN ON
LIMITED RAIN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH SOME BROKEN IFR/MVFR CIGS AGAIN
AFTER 09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007/

DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER WET WEEKEND LIKELY IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS
THE MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS OVER SW TX WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
NOT LIKELY UNTIL ABOUT LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DOMINATE BY THE MID WEEK AND BRING MORE NORMAL LATE JULY TEMPS(90S)
AND POPS(10-30%). HOWEVER BY LATE NEXT WEEK IT APPEARS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT W/NW AND A GENERAL WEAKNESS OVER THE AREA COULD
AGAIN INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

WITH THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL LOW TEMPORARILY PARKED OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL COUNTRY TODAY WILL SEE BEST CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE DEEP MOIST
SELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TRAINING TROPICAL CONVECTION OFF THE
GULF. HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR TODAY AS AIRMASS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER LULL IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND HAVE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM...HOWEVER EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT TO QUICKLY REDEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW DRIFTS SWWD OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THEREFORE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNTIL
THE LOW DRIFTS WEST INTO WEST TX/NE MEXICO LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  88  74  90  75 /  40  60  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  89  73  89  74 /  40  60  50  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  90  75  92  76 /  30  40  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  88  75  89  77 /  40  50  50  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

01/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
552 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
552 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON...WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 5 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED OVER AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.