Flash Flood Watch 17, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Lee County, TX, Llano County, TX, Medina County, TX, Real County, TX, Travis County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Val Verde County, TX, Williamson County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
551 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 342 UNTIL
07Z (2 AM CDT). FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH
PRODUCT, SATWCNEWX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/

AVIATION...
A VERY ACTIVE NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU SOUTH TX. SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX AND THE HILL COUNTRY WILL BE UNDER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES TONIGHT. WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THE CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007/

DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF THREE IMPULSES WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEVERAL OLD BOUNDARIES
WILL ACT TO FOCUS THE ENERGY OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NORTH TEXAS. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR
CWA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BE SEVERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FORECASTING CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000
J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS. WE EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING TO BE WIDESPREAD
HIGH WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT ITSELF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SECOND AND THIRD SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL
BRING A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH OF
THESE SYSTEMS. AT THIS TIME THE TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT NOT NECESSARILY FOR SEVERE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND THE
WEATHER WILL TURN BENIGN. NO CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  92  70  92  70 /  40  20  20  30  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  91  68  91  68 /  40  20  20  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  91  73  94  72 /  40  20  30  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  91  72  89  72 /  30  20  20  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

25/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-041045-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN TEXAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

TONIGHTS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER CLUSTER OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.