Flash Flood Warning 92, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 301536
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1031 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007

TXC029-259-301645-
KENDALL TX-BEXAR TX-
1031 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR
BEXAR AND KENDALL COUNTIES...

AT 1030 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER WESTERN BEXAR 
AND KENDALL COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WARING...THE 
DOMINION...SISTERDALE...LEON SPRINGS AND BOERNE.

RADAR ESTIMATES ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PARTS OF 
BEXAR AND KENDALL COUNTIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE HEAVY RAIN IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 15 TO 30 
MINUTES...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD 
PRONE AREAS.

PEA SIZED HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED WITH 
THESE STORMS. 

RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD CREEKS, STREAMS, STREET
INTERSECTIONS, CULVERTS AND UNDERPASSES. LOW LYING PLACES THAT
NORMALLY FLOOD COULD BECOME DEATH TRAPS. DO NOT CROSS ANY FLOODED 
AREA. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE LIFE 
YOU SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE 
LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 2928 9879 2916 9845 2943 9818 2962 9839
      2974 9868 3012 9858 3012 9886 2971 9876

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
932 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ADJUSTED FORECASTS FOR NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND RAINFALL
TRENDS FOR TODAY...WITH BLENDED INFO FROM 06Z SOLUTIONS...
12Z DATA...AND AVAILABLE CLIMATE PATTERNS/TRENDS FROM
RECENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.  RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
DECREASING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.  RAINFALL CHANCES MAY PICKUP AGAIN WED. NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THEN DECREASE AGAIN FRIDAY.  ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007/

UPDATE...
ANALYSIS OF RADAR...SURFACE OBS...AND LAPS DATA SUGGESTS THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE CANCELED THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CONTINUES AS STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. UPDATED THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007/

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW WILL OFFER PLENTY OF CONVECTION CHALLENGES FOR THE
PERIOD. A WEAKENING COMPLEX OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THE MIDDAY WEATHER ACROSS
MOST AREAS BY AROUND 16Z, WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF STABLE WEATHER
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREAS AND COULD
TRANSITION INTO THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY A FEW HOURS OF STABLE
WEATHER AT AROUND NOON. THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS
WEAK ENOUGH TO AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER IF CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE STABLE AT MIDDAY, THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION COULD
SHIFT INTO NIGHTTIME, WITH ANOTHER MCS POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY THOSE BETWEEN 22-06Z. DURING PERIODS OF BENIGN
WEATHER, MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE MOST COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007/

DISCUSSION...
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW ENTERING WEST
TEXAS. THIS HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY. SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HPC HAS INCLUDED A
PORTION OF OUR CWA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARM AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US ON
SUNDAY. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET VERY EXCITED AND HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  65  80  67  85 /  80  50  50  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  65  80  66  85 /  80  50  50  40  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  68  86  69  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  67  83  67  85 /  80  50  30  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

08/25/01/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
558 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-011100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
558 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BURNET
TO HONDO TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
CONTINUED TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS NORTH OF A DEL RIO
TO KERRVILLE TO BURNET LINE THIS MORNING.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY TRIGGER NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 5 INCH
TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND
ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE FROM ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
722 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 AM     FLASH FLOOD      25 NNE BRACKETTVILLE    29.65N 100.25W
04/30/2007                   EDWARDS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER IS OVER FM674 AND PARTS OF FM334.

&&

PM