Flash Flood Warning 501, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1133 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.AVIATION...
5 THSD TO 10 THSD SCT OCNLLY BKN WITH ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA
ALONG AND EAST OF A KAQO TO NEAR KSAT TO NEAR KPEZ LINE THRU
09Z. CIGS FORMING AROUND 2 THSD TO 3 THSD BKN AFTER 09Z WITH
ISOLATED SHRA BECOMING 3 THSD TO 5 THSD SCT TO BKN AFTER 15Z.
WDLY SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL FORM AGAIN AROUND AND AFTER 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO WANE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION, RAPID COOLING BEHIND THE
STORMS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS OUT WEST TO PLUMMET. HAVE TWEAKED MIN
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED NEAR-TERM POPS, DEWPOINT TEMPS AND
SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007/

AVIATION...
5 THSD TO 10 THSD SCT WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THSD
FT IS FORECAST THRU 06Z WITH WDLY SCT TSRA WEST OF A KJCT
TO KCOT LINE.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THSD FT AFT 06Z TO 4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT WITH
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THSD FT AFTER 16Z.  WIDELY SCT
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 19Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT TRAINING IS OCCURRING WHICH HAS PROMPTED A
FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES, AND A FORECAST FOR ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT FOR THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, BUT A FEW
ELEVATED CELLS COULD OCCUR IN THE UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF
SC TX TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, RESULTING
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STALLING OVER SE TX AND LA. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AND
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TX TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS COULD BE ENHANCED DURING THIS
PERIOD SINCE THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BECOME DEEPER MODELS KEEP THE
HIGHER RAIN TOTALS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT THE LOOSE
DEFINITION OF THE AXIS COULD MEAN A CHANGE FOR THE WORSE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE SPEED OF THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS LOOSELY, WITH
SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OF THE HIGHER POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  93  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  94  67  93  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  98  74  99  75 /  10  -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  72  93  72 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

25/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
453 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-151000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
453 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MULTIPLE RAIN EVENTS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.