Flash Flood Warning 497, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
608 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007/

AVIATION...
CIGS 1 THSD TO 3 THSD FT BKN WILL PREVAIL THRU 17Z WITH
SCT SHRA AND TSRA. CIGS 3 THSD TO 6 THSD BKN ARE FORECAST
AFTER 17Z WITH AREAS OF CIGS 1 THSD TO 2 THSD OVC AND
VSBYS 1 TO 3 MILES IN RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME 5 THSD SCT CIGS ABOVE 10
THSD FT AFTER 23Z WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA.  BY 05Z CIGS
OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD FT BKN TO OVC ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007/

.DANGEROUSLY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT THINGS ABOUT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TRYING
TO COME UP WITH A NEW WAY TO EMPHASIZE JUST HOW WET...AND DANGEROUS...THE
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE. TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SIT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INSTABILITY
AND WEAK CIRCULATIONS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
UNORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL IGNITE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS THAT EXACT LOCATIONS OF THE EXPECTED FLASH
FLOODING CAN NOT BE PINPOINTED. HOWEVER...SINCE GROUNDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA ARE ALREADY SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED.

THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL THUS BE CENTERED ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS INSTABILITY FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL AS EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE AND HEATING. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH GFS NUMBERS AS IT FINALLY SEEMS TO HAVE A GRASP ON THE
SCENARIO.

PLEASE REMAIN ALERT TO THE ONGOING DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. IT
IS NEVER TOO EARLY TO MAKE PLANS IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  71  85  71  89 /  80  60  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  86  70  88 /  80  60  50  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  73  87  72  88 /  30  60  50  60  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  72  84  72  88 /  80  60  60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

25/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
441 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
441 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...RIVERS...AND
AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WET LATE JUNE TO EARLY JULY RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND STRONG WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
225 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROUND ROCK              30.52N 97.67W
06/28/2007                   WILLIAMSON         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...MAINLY FROM
            ROUND ROCK TO GEORGETOWN. SOME EVACUATIONS TAKING PLACE
            IN ROUND ROCK AND THE UNINCORPORATED AREA OF BRUSHY
            CREEK. A FEW WATER RESCUES FROM CARS ALONG HWY620 NEAR
            BRUSHY CREEK. CEDAR PARK FIRE DEPT. ASSESSING FLOODING OF
            HOMES IN SPANISH OAKS AREA AND ARE REQUESTING AIRCRAFT TO
            FLY PERSONNEL INTO THE AREA TO ASSESS AS THE SUBDIVISION
            IS ISOLATED BY WATER AND INACCESSIBLE BY GROUND.
            SHELTERING OPERATIONS ARE OPENING IN ROUND ROCK.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
442 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE GEORGETOWN         30.63N 97.66W
06/28/2007                   WILLIAMSON         TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TEN PEOPLE IN THREE HOMES ALONG SMITH BRANCH CREEK IN
            GEORGETOWN EVACUATED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MS