Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 130739
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
238 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXC029-130748-
BEXAR TX-
238 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 245 AM CDT FOR BEXAR
COUNTY...

AT 238 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY HAD DECREASED
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING. 
RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS 
AND MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. 

LAT...LON 2972 9844 2976 9841 2973 9838 2967 9839
      2966 9835 2960 9834 2956 9829 2957 9824
      2948 9817 2950 9812 2914 9841 2925 9880
      2970 9879 2972 9877 2976 9856

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1143 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON WATCH DUE TO
RELATIVE FAST SPEED AND SMALL COVERAGE OF THE HEAVY RAINS.
OTHERWISE, HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2007/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION
WAS NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE I-35
TAF SITES FROM 06Z TO 09Z. LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. THE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...LIGHT SFC
WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN FOG FORMATION LATE
TONIGHT FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DEVELOP
BY 10Z AND LAST UNTIL 15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z AND LIKELY CONTINUE THRU 03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2007/

UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, HOWEVER WILL NOT ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED. SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO, HOWEVER WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN
TIMING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LATER ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND BECOMES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED BY THE NEXT TWO SHIFTS SHOULD 00Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TRENDS OF 12Z AND 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  74  62  79  59 /  50  70  70  50  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  75  62  77  57 /  50  70  70  50  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           58  74  59  85  57 /  20  40  40  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  73  63  82  56 /  60  70  70  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-131100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
549 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1015 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

TXC055-130900-
CALDWELL-
1015 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2007

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PLUM CREEK
NEAR LULING, FOR THE SAN MARCOS RIVER BELOW LULING,
FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT GONZALES AND THE
GUADALUPE RIVER NEAR CUERO.

FOR THE PLUM CREEK NEAR LULING, THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY IN
FLOOD NEAR 25 FEET AND THE FLOOD STAGE IS 23 FEET. IT WILL
REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR THE SAN MARCOS RIVER BELOW LULING, THE RIVER IS
CURRENTLY IN FLOOD NEAR 28 FEET AND THE FLOOD STAGE IS
20 FEET. IT WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT GONZALES, THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY
READING 23 FEET AND THE FLOOD STAGE IS 31 FEET. THE RIVER WILL
RISE ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER NEAR CUERO, THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY
READING 9 FEET AND THE FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET. THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST IS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CHANGE THESE RIVER FORECAST
LEVELS.

PM