Flash Flood Warning 373, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 232324
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
620 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

TXC053-453-491-240130-
BURNET TX-WILLIAMSON TX-TRAVIS TX-
620 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR
TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON AND BURNET COUNTIES...

AT 614 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THIS STORMS 
ARE MOVING SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP 
TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. OVER TWO AND A HALF INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN 
OVER PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA IN THE PAST TWO HOURS.

LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY AT RISK FROM THESE HEAVY RAINS INCLUDE 
GEORGETOWN...ROUND ROCK...AND MUCH OF AUSTIN. 

DO NOT DRIVE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES...INCLUDING SUVS AND PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3071 9732 3084 9778 3102 9797 3101 9838
      3080 9837 3046 9814 3027 9801 3005 9771

$$

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 240126
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
825PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

TXC053-453-491-240132-
BURNET TX-WILLIAMSON TX-TRAVIS TX-
825 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT FOR TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON AND BURNET COUNTIES...

AT 823 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED LIGHT RAINS 
MAINLY ACROSS TRAVIS AND SOUTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. RAINFALL 
RATES WERE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING 
HAS ENDED FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...SOME STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 
VARIOUS FORKS OF SAN GABRIEL RIVER AND ONION CREEK WATERSHEDS MAY 
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH DUE TO EARLIER HEAVY RAINS. 

LAT...LON 3071 9732 3084 9778 3102 9797 3101 9838
      3080 9837 3046 9814 3027 9801 3005 9771

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
426 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID
BLOW-UP OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX. SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL
WARRANT MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, A SHIFT TOWARD ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN
IS UNDERWAY, AND WE MAY NEED TO START THINKING ABOUT ANOTHER FFA
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007/

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWS IN THE 1.6 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE AND SOLAR
HEATING. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE WELL INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL JET AND SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PLUNGE
SOUTH INTO TEXAS TO PROVIDE LIFT AND DIFFLUENCE. COULD SEE SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, HOWEVER THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. BEYOND TONIGHT,
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
AS GFS HAS RETURNED TO ITS EARLIER SOLUTIONS. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE AND JET ENERGY DROPS SOUTH
BETWEEN WESTERN STATES RIDGE, EASTERN STATES TROUGH, AND GULF OF
MEXICO RIDGE. THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED ITS WESTERN PROGRESSION AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES. DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
INCREASE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LIFT WHILE BOOSTING MOISTURE (PWS)
BACK INTO THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASED PWS WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. THE MID AND UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND THIS WEEKEND. STRONG
UPPER DIFFLUENCE, LIFT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ALL SUGGEST THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. DUE TO SOILS REMAINING
VERY SATURATED AND A FEW RIVERS AND STREAMS OUT OF BANKS OR IN
FLOOD, ADDITIONAL OR RENEWED FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT. ALSO, AS
IN THE LAST FEW EVENTS, THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED STORM WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST. THIS LOWERS POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE, CLOUDS, AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE
WITH THE MAV/MEX GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  91  71  89  71 /  40  20  30  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  92  67  89  71 /  40  20  30  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  92  73  89  73 /  20  20  30  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  91  71  87  72 /  30  20  40  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

10/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
901 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
901 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-240000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
350 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL RETURN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS HAS SLIGHTLY REDUCED
MOISTURE TODAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN TO TROPICAL
LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVE WEST TO NEAR THE BIG BEND BY
SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
A SMALL THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN
A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT ARE
ALREADY SWOLLEN FROM RECENT RAINFALL AS WELL AS RENEWED FLOODING
IN THOSE AREAS WHERE WATERS HAVE RECEDED AND AT LOW LYING AREAS
AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A SMALL
THREAT OF WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.  THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO IS POSTED ON LINE AT
WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX.