Flash Flood Warning 354, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

.AVIATION...
AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, PATCHY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS, AND
ISOLATED LIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS, HOWEVER GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST...SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NEW ZONES WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT SHOWING HIGHEST TOTALS CLOSE TO WHERE MODEL QPF
LOCATIONS WERE PROJECTED FROM THE MORNING RUNS, BUT ROUGHLY 3
TIMES THE AMOUNTS. HIGHEST THREATS WILL AFFECT ALONG AND 40 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF I-10 N OF SAT AND I-37 S OF SAT WHERE UP TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. TRENDS ARE SLOWLY FALLING FOR THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN PATTERN THAT TOOK AIM ON GUADALUPE, WILSON,
AND HAYES COUNTIES WHERE A THICK AREA OF STRATIFORM RAINS CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE RATES AROUND HALF AN INCH PER HOUR. EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT DO NOT FEEL THE AIR WILL BECOME
STABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT POPS OR ANY
CHANGES TO THE WATCH AREA. FLOOD THREAT WILL TEMPORARILY AFFECT
FRIO COUNTY, BUT THE SANDY SOILS OVER THE WINTER GARDENS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE 2-3 INCH RAINS. THUS FFA AREA AND VALID TIME SHOULD
HOLD FOR NOW. THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW SHOWS CONTINUED HIGH POPS
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE WESTERN COUNTIES, BUT THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
MAY MODIFY BASED ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
TONIGHT. WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR SHIFTING WITH THE COOL OUTFLOW
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE, EXPECT A RAIN ENVIRONMENT MORE LIKE THAT OF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING BACK TO BELOW 2
INCHES, BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

MODELS SHOW AN INCREASED RIDGE INFLUENCE ALOFT FOR SUNDAY BUT THE
MID LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MAINLY DAYTIME RAINS.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM MID LEVEL COOLING AND NORTH WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD ENABLE MORE RAINS TO PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE
EXTENDED CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH MOST MODEL
DATA KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGE FORCED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TEXAS. SINCE THERE REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY WITH
THIS PATTERN, THE EMPHASIS FALLS ON THE BEST CHANCE OF A DRY DAY,
AND THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  88  74  91  74 /  70  60  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  87  72  91  70 /  70  60  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  87  75  93  75 /  70  90  50  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  87  74  91  73 /  70  70  30  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

05/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-211115-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
401 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE HILL COUNTRY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

.DAY TWO...SATURDAY...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAY THREE...SUNDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST PART OF THE AREA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FAIRLY WET JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DAYTIME TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
146 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW BRAUNFELS           29.70N 98.12W
07/20/2007  M0.00 INCH       COMAL              TX   ASOS

            5.71 INCHES MEASURED BY NEW BRAUNFELS ASOS SINCE 9 AM.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 S SEGUIN              29.46N 97.97W
07/20/2007  M0.00 INCH       GUADALUPE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5.10 INCHES SINCE 130 PM.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
354 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 E NEW BRAUNFELS      29.70N 97.95W
07/20/2007  M8.00 INCH       GUADALUPE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8.00 INCHES SINCE NOON AT HWY 46 AND BARBAROSA.

0350 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW BRAUNFELS           29.70N 98.12W
07/20/2007  M7.33 INCH       COMAL              TX   ASOS

            7.33 INCHES SINCE 900 AM.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
509 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SE NEW BRAUNFELS      29.64N 98.05W
07/20/2007                   GUADALUPE          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HWY 46 CLOSED BETWEEN NEW BRAUNFELS AND SEGUIN

0445 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N STOCKDALE           29.32N 97.96W
07/20/2007                   WILSON             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY 46 CLOSE FROM STOCKDALE NORTH TO CO. LINE

0507 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BULVERDE                29.74N 98.45W
07/20/2007                   COMAL              TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FM 1863 CLOSED FOR HIGH WATER FROM BULVERDE EAST TO HWY
            46.

0507 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 W CHRISTINE          28.79N 98.66W
07/20/2007                   ATASCOSA           TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TX HWY 140 CLOSED TO HIGH WATER

&&

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
553 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       10 NNW AUSTIN           30.44N 97.81W
07/20/2007  M1.51 INCH       TRAVIS             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            AGHT2 AUSTIN GREAT HILLS. 1.51 FROM 700 AM TO 830 AM.

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 NNW AUSTIN            30.41N 97.80W
07/20/2007  M1.68 INCH       TRAVIS             TX   UTILITY COMPANY

            LCRA GAUGE AT BULL CREEK AND LOOP 360. 1.68 FROM 700 AM
            TO 830 AM.

0144 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW BRAUNFELS           29.70N 98.12W
07/20/2007  M7.71 INCH       COMAL              TX   ASOS

            5.71 INCHES MEASURED BY NEW BRAUNFELS ASOS SINCE 9 AM.

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 S SEGUIN              29.46N 97.97W
07/20/2007  M5.10 INCH       GUADALUPE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5.10 INCHES SINCE 130 PM.

0338 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 E NEW BRAUNFELS      29.70N 97.95W
07/20/2007  M8.00 INCH       GUADALUPE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8.00 INCHES SINCE NOON AT HWY 46 AND BARBAROSA.

0350 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW BRAUNFELS           29.70N 98.12W
07/20/2007  M7.33 INCH       COMAL              TX   ASOS

            7.33 INCHES SINCE 900 AM.

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SE NEW BRAUNFELS      29.64N 98.05W
07/20/2007                   GUADALUPE          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HWY 46 CLOSED BETWEEN NEW BRAUNFELS AND SEGUIN

0445 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N STOCKDALE           29.32N 97.96W
07/20/2007                   WILSON             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY 46 CLOSE FROM STOCKDALE NORTH TO CO. LINE

0507 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BULVERDE                29.74N 98.45W
07/20/2007                   COMAL              TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FM 1863 CLOSED FOR HIGH WATER FROM BULVERDE EAST TO HWY
            46.

0507 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 W CHRISTINE          28.79N 98.66W
07/20/2007                   ATASCOSA           TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TX HWY 140 CLOSED TO HIGH WATER

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     FLASH FLOOD      S POTEET                29.04N 98.58W
07/20/2007                   ATASCOSA           TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY 16 SOUTN FROM POTEET TO JOURDANTON CLOSED FOR HIGH
            WATER.

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NE POTH                 29.07N 98.08W
07/20/2007                   WILSON             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TX HWY 541 CLOSED FROM POTH TO KOSCIUSKO ALSO FM 1347
            CLOSED FROM PANDORA TO KOSCIUSKO ALSO FM 1346 FROM LA
            VERNIA TO NEAR SAINT HEDWIG.

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE NEW BRAUNFELS      29.76N 98.06W
07/20/2007                   COMAL              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            I35 ACCESS RD CLOSED AT MILE MARKER 195

&&

JPB