Flash Flood Warning 222, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 260903
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
402 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXC385-261030-
REAL TX-
402 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT FOR REAL
COUNTY...

AT 400 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS INDICATED 
THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER REAL COUNTY WERE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. 
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

IT IS HARD TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. IF FLOOD
WATERS RISE ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3008 9969 2993 9969 2992 9963 2964 9963
      2963 10001 2972 10004 2978 10003 2980 10001
      2985 10003 2991 10000 3009 9997

$$

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 261021
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
521 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXC385-261031-
REAL TX-
521 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR REAL COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 
AT 530 AM CDT ...

LAT...LON 3008 9969 2993 9969 2992 9963 2964 9963
      2963 10001 2972 10004 2978 10003 2980 10001
      2985 10003 2991 10000 3009 9997

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

.UPDATE...LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO A BOUNDARY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT.
WILL CANCEL/EXPIRE PREVIOUS WATCH AREA...AND ISSUE A NEW FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH 7 AM...AS CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES AND FFA WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007/

AVIATION...
A WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TX WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA. THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL
RESULT IN IFR-MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 06Z AND CONTINUING THRU
ABOUT 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007/

UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AND IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007/

AVIATION...
A WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
THE SHRA/TSRA. THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN IFR-MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AND CONTINUING THRU ABOUT 17Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WEAK...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS FEATURE OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH A HINT OF
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS DEPICTED IN
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES IS FROM THE SOUTH
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE VERY MOIST. PW IS ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AT DRT AND FWD WHILE ITS OVER TWO INCHES AT CRP. THIS HAS LED TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS I EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MEANS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...NAM HAS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER POPS AND QPF. THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS NUMBERS.

STARTING THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TOWARD THE WEST.
THIS WILL PUSH HIGHER POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. BY FRIDAY WE
WILL BEGIN A PATTERN OF DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES EACH DAY.

TEMPS WILL START WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL.
BOTH WILL SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  87  73  88  74 /  70  70  50  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  88  73  89  74 /  60  70  50  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  77  93  76 /  50  20  20  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  88  75  89  74 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANDERA...BLANCO...BURNET...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE.

&&

03/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1200 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-261130-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1200 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
FLOODING IN URBAN AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN URBAN AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE SITUATION
UNFOLDS THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF MAINLY SEA-BREEZE STORMS RETURNING BY
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.