Flash Flood Warning 215, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
939 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND
RECONFIGURE 1ST PERIOD POPS WITH DECAYING MCS OVER THE CENTER OF
OUR CWFA. ALSO DROPPED 1ST PERIOD MAX TEMPS BY 1-4 DEGREES GIVEN
RAIN-COOLING.

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z. THE LEADING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL AERODROMES BY 14Z WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS AND IFR VSBY IN DRENCHING RAINS. A STABLE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH VFR DEBRIS CLOUDS. A NARROW TROPICAL TAP
MAY REMAIN OVER RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER KDRT. OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO ALL
LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427 WEST ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY TO VAL VERDE COUNTY BASED ON DERECHO MOVEMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007/

UPDATE...
HAVE INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427 FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS INCLUDES BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES.
DERECHO CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR TODAY COMPARED TO EARLIER FORECASTS. DERECHO PLUNGING SOUTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MCS THAT MOVED OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY IS MOVING WEST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. AIRMASS IS MOIST WITH PWS AROUND TWO INCHES,
UNSTABLE WITH LI-S OF -7 TO -9 C AND CAPES OF 2K TO 3K J/KG, AND
INCREASINGLY UNCAPPED WITH CINH FALLING UNDER 10 J/KG. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE ABOVE FEATURES, EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TODAY. MAY HAVE TO
ADD MENTION OF SEVERE IF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CONTINUE THEIR
TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE POTENT. AFTER TODAY, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TRIES TO ASSERT ITSELF WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING AND MOISTURE
SLOWLY DECREASING. THE MEXICAN INVERTED TROUGH AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MAKING FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AIRMASS DRIES OUT ENOUGH
FOR NO POPS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
SOME MODELS WANT TO RETAIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OR EVEN THE
MEXICAN INVERTED TROUGH AND SHOULD THEY VERIFY, THEN POPS MAY HAVE
TO BE INTRODUCED FOR PARTS OF THAT PERIOD. AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MEX
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  75  94  72  95 /  50  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  90  71  93  70  95 /  50  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  75  94  73  94 /  70  30  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  74  92  72  93 /  80  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11/08/DC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-210900-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
356 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY TODAY. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN
AREAS OF AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.  THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.