Flash Flood Warning 181, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
505 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAYETTE, LAVACA, AND LEE
COUNTIES FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS SET UP SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF AREA BY NOON.
THIS AREA HAS SEEN UPWARDS OF 10 OR SO INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY PARTS OF LAVACA COUNTY. FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE ESCARPMENT FROM NORTHEAST OF NEW BRAUNFELS TO
AUSTIN TO TEMPLE, RAIN HAS ALSO DEVELOPED, HOWEVER THIS AREA HAS
SEEN ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE RAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY MOVING EAST BEING SHOVED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOW
OUR UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY TO NEAR
THE SABINE RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AXIS, ALTHOUGH THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
DECREASE IN POPS AS PWS SLOWLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OUT WEST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE HEATING AND FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN TEXAS. CURRENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY POSSIBLY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO, SEABREEZE MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY
NEXT WEEKEND, A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
STATES AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO TEXAS. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD CAP THE AIRMASS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE OR OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN TEXAS DRIFTING INTO THE AREA. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE NEAR MEX TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER OUT WEST AND FAR EAST DUE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  68  87  69  88 /  70  20  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  67  88  67  87 /  70  20  20  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  71  92  71  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  69  87  70  89 /  40  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
FAYETTE...LAVACA...LEE.

&&

04/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
956 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
956 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE HILL COUNTRY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY...AND
THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.