Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 131546
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
945 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

TXC091-187-131630-
COMAL TX-GUADALUPE TX-
945 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CST FOR
GUADALUPE AND COMAL COUNTIES...

AT 940 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS ACROSS COMAL AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. 

NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED ACROSS COMAL AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. 

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. THE LIFE YOU 
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 2964 9835 2941 9809 2966 9779 2994 9823

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
553 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

.AVIATION...
A MIX BAG OF SKY CONDITIONS AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSE THE AREA. BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A
PREVAILING MVFR CIG AND HIGHER VFR CIG ABOVE. A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH AT 13 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AT KAUS ARND 15Z, KDRT 16Z, KHYI-KSAT 17Z AND KSSF
18Z. AFTER THE FROPA, CIGS WILL VARY FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN OR RAINSHOWERS CONTINUING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/

DISCUSSION...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SEE A DETERIORATION TO
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL
SURGE OF POLAR AIR HAS ENTERED INTO THE AREAS NORTHERN PORTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING FORCING US TO RECONSIDER TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THE TROPICAL TAP WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TODAY COMBINING
BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE SOURCES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..SOME OVERRUNNING THE INITIAL SHALLOW
COLD SURGE. CONTINUED OVERRUNNING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SHOWERS. OVERRUNNING CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
SURGE ARRIVING BRINGING COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
AS READINGS DROP, BY LATE EVENING SUNDAY, RAIN WILL BEGIN
TRANSITIONING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION, LIKELY EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT TO COVER MUCH OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON MONDAY, THIS IS WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE
COULD OCCUR. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF SUBSEQUENT MODELS SUGGEST THE SAME
TREND. FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN EXPANDING INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND SOME OF THIS WILL BECOME
MIXED WITH SLEET ACCORDING TO FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT THIS WINTER WEATHER EPISODE WILL BE IN ITS WANING STAGES AS
THE ARCTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH, BUT NOT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE DRY COLD RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  37  43  33  33 / 100 100  70  90  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  37  43  31  33 /  90 100  70  90  80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  58  68  39  43 /  30  50  40  50  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  48  58  33  34 /  80  80  60  90  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

02/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
532 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-141145-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
532 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FREEZING RAIN WILL COMMENCE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY,
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE WILL GRIP THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL INDICES FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...AND TEENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
624 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-131430-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
624 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...WET WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY...

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN LOWERING TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS, INCLUDING THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING EXPECTED. THIS OVERRUNNING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES ENSUE AND WORK SOUTH. BY DAWN MONDAY, AREAS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN COULD COVER MUCH OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND MOST
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM THE EASTERN HILL
COUNTRY EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WITH OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS
CONTINUING, SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE MAY OCCUR IN THIS
AREA. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD THESE FORECAST
TRENDS HOLD.

AS THE COLD ARCTIC RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, FREEZING RAIN CONDITIONS
WILL EXPAND INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS MAY TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN,
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY, ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ICING MAY POSE PROBLEMS MAINLY ON BRIDGES,
OVERPASSES AND EXPOSED OBJECTS. HOWEVER, EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
CAN BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF COLDER WEATHER TO COME WILL BE CRITICAL
WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER EPISODE. IF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN
A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.