Wind Advisory 9, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
302 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM DRY WEATHER LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING WITH POSSIBLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR THE CWA. RATHER STRONG DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER
MOVING INTO UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THIS
CENTER WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BUT A SECOND
VORTICITY CENTER/TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY AND
CONTINUE ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY. MID LEVEL 80 KT SPEED MAX WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH THESE ELEMENTS
STRENGTHENING WINDS. WARM DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
LATE AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO 650 MB ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO SUSTAIN SPEEDS AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SPARSE BUT STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

PRIMARY TROUGH WILL EXHIBIT LITTLE MOVEMENT AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL VORT
CENTER/PRESSURE TROUGH FORECASTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS
ARIZONA MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL MEANWHILE SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH REGION ON MONDAY WITH
EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND BOUNDARY ADVECTING MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AIR MASS BECOMING AT
LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE. THUS EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION AS
AIR MASS IS LIFTED BY UPPER TROUGH.

TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AND UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING WARM DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST
GFS MOVES ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BUT TOO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FT AGL. MODERATE OR
GREATER TURBULENCE BELOW 12,000 FT AGL...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 84  57  78  49  76 /   0  10  10   0  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        84  55  76  46  69 /   0  10  10   0  30
LAS CRUCES              82  52  78  47  76 /   0  10  10   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              82  51  75  44  71 /  10  10  10  10  30
CLOUDCROFT              62  37  53  32  52 /  10  10  20  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  51  75  45  74 /  10  10  10  10  20
SILVER CITY             72  45  67  38  67 /  20  20  20  10  20
DEMING                  80  50  77  43  76 /   0  10  10   0  10
LORDSBURG               79  51  77  44  77 /   0  10  10   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ022>025-030>032.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

05 ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
725 AM MDT FRI MAY 4 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-051245-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
725 AM MDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY POSE PROBLEMS FOR
MOTORISTS DUE TO A FEW AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.