Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
149 PM MDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A FEW STORMS
COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AT LOWERS LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL AT 1.2 INCHES WITH CAPES
ABOVE 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALSO NOW
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT
TERM MODEL FORECASTS AND SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE UPPER
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING. LIFTING
WILL BE RATHER DEEP FOR JULY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT BENEATH DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALOFT RESULTING IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SHEAR RATHER WEAK AND WEST BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10,000 FEET AGL OVER LOWLANDS SO ANY SEVERE
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. HOWEVER LIGHT STEERING FLOW
ALSO MEANS SLOW MOVEMENT TO STORMS AND THUS HEAVY RAINS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.

VERY SLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT UPPER FLOW DOMINATED BY HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND MEAN LONGER AVE TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST. THIS PLACES THE CWA IN PATH OF POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND/OR NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONTROLLED BY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
OF THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA WHICH WILL INDUCE LOW
LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. EXTENSION OF THERMAL TROUGH MAY
PERIODICALLY EXTEND INTO THE CWA CAUSING AREAS OF SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING AND LOCATION OF FORCING
MECHANISMS WILL AS ALWAYS BE DIFFICULT BEYOND THE SHORTER TERM SO
WILL CONTINUE BROAD BRUSH CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

LONGER TERM GFS STILL MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE INVERTED TROUGH
VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD NEXT WEEK WITH AXIS DRIFTING INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO COMES TO PASS...HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 14/00Z-15/00Z
WK SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH THROGH THE NEW MEXICO...WILL WORK WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SCT CB/-TSRA MTNS AND
LOWLANDS.  SFC WND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS
IN +RA/BLDU WITH SOME STORMS. MOVEMENT SHD BE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. TSTMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 2400L.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  95  74  97  73 /  40  20  30  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        66  89  69  91  68 /  40  20  30  20  30
LAS CRUCES              69  94  70  96  69 /  40  20  30  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              66  92  67  96  66 /  40  20  30  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              48  70  48  72  50 /  50  40  40  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68  93  69  94  68 /  40  20  30  20  30
SILVER CITY             62  84  64  87  61 /  40  30  30  20  30
DEMING                  68  95  69  97  68 /  40  20  30  20  30
LORDSBURG               69  96  70  98  69 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH/TRIPOLI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1108 AM MDT FRI JUL 13 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-141645-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1108 AM MDT FRI JUL 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF FLOODING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER.

ROGASH