Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
230 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW AREAS OF FLOODING. ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES A BIT DRIER MONDAY AND BEYOND BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS MORNING SOUNDINGS AND SOUNDER
IMAGERY BOTH SHOW PWS OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING
FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. WITH GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MODERATE RAINS ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY...
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN CWA. MORNING DEBRIS CLOUDS
SLOWED DAYTIME HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE EAST BUT NOW SHOULD START
HEATING UP AS LEFTOVER CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. GILA WILDERNESS ALSO
SEEING SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
AS A FEW AREAS RECEIVED MODERATE RAINFALL YESTERDAY. REMAINS OF
INVERTED TROUGH NOW SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL AND MAY BE AIDING IN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA. FEATURE SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA LATER
THIS EVENING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN OVERALL PATTERN OF HIGH GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED OVER ARIZONA LATER TOMORROW DUE
TO FORCING OF LARGE HUDSON BAY LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH INTO TEXAS. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS BUT FRONT COULD
WELL BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP OVER AREA DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE.
WILL KEEP SUNDAY STORMS IN SCATTERED CATEGORY...BUT DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED MONDAY AND BEYOND. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW MAY WELL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 13/00Z-14/00Z...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF MVFR FOR CIGS
AND VSBY. STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  95  73  96  72 /  40  30  40  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        67  91  67  90  68 /  40  30  40  20  30
LAS CRUCES              69  95  70  95  68 /  30  30  40  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  93  67  93  66 /  40  30  40  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              50  70  49  72  47 /  40  40  50  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  94  69  94  68 /  40  30  40  20  30
SILVER CITY             63  87  63  86  63 /  50  40  40  30  30
DEMING                  69  94  69  96  68 /  30  30  40  20  30
LORDSBURG               67  95  70  97  69 /  30  30  40  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ024-025.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

17 HEFNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1108 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-131645-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1108 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1047 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

NMZ022-023-030>032-130600-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SILVER CITY...TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES...
LORDSBURG...DEMING...LAS CRUCES
1047 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2007

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AS A
RESULT OF A TROPICAL WAVE OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH MOVED
INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
IN SOME AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS BUT IN ADDITION...SOME COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO
ONE HALF INCH...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
TODAY AND MANY AREAS NEAR OR AT AT SATURATION FROM YESTERDAYS
RAINS MAY EXPERIENCE AGGRAVATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. HEAVY RAIN WITH
THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS AND
SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL AS PONDING AND FLOWING WATER ACROSS AREA
ROADS. EXTRA CAUTION IS ADVISED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE: OTERO...EL
PASO...HUDSPETH.

DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE TELEVISION STATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

NOVLAN